A top adviser to John Kasich’s struggling presidential campaign has written a memo to the “#NeverTrump forces” on the best ways to deprive Donald Trump of delegates in the remaining contests.
Kasich has only won 148 total delegates in comparison to Trump’s 845 and [crscore]Ted Cruz[/crscore]’s 559. Both Kasich and Cruz are now focused on making sure Trump doesn’t accrue enough delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot at the Republican National Committee in June. Under that strategy, Cruz and Kasich think delegates, no longer bound to Trump, would support them.
In the Wednesday memo, Kasich aide John Weaver acknowledges that anti-Trump people and organizations “missed opportunities to take delegates away from Donald Trump in more than half a dozen New York congressional districts last night by not engaging in any serious ways.”
With contests scheduled for next week in Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware and Pennsylvania, Weaver is suggesting #NeverTrump attack Trump hard in a number of specific counties.
Here is the full memo:
To: Interested Parties
From: John Weaver, Chief Strategist, Kasich For America
Re: The #NeverTrump Strategy for MD, CT, RI, DE and PA
The #NeverTrump movement missed opportunities to take delegates away from Donald Trump in more than half a dozen New York congressional districts last night by not engaging in any serious ways.
A repeat effort by #NeverTrump forces on April 26 would put Donald Trump on track to win the nomination on the first ballot.
Here’s how Trump can still be stopped:
Maryland allocates delegates on a winner-take-all basis statewide and by congressional district. Recent public polling shows Trump leading statewide, but Gov. Kasich is sitting in a strong second place, far ahead of Ted Cruz.
Our data show that Trump could lose to Kasich in almost any district but MD-1. He is particularly vulnerable in MD-4 and MD-8 as well as MD-2, MD-3, MD-5, MD-6 and MD-7.
A serious effort in Maryland could cut the number of delegates Trump can win by almost half.
Connecticut is winner-take-all by congressional district and proportional over 20% statewide if no candidate reaches 50%. Current public polling has Trump at 49% statewide with John Kasich showing a strong second place. Internal data show Kasich can top Trump in CT-1, CT-2, CT-4 and CT-5.
Keeping Trump under 50% statewide is critical. A serious #NeverTrump effort in Connecticut could cost Trump close to half the delegates here too.
Rhode Island is proportional with a 10% threshold both statewide and by congressional district. Keeping Trump’s margins down could cost him at least half a dozen delegates.
Delaware will award all 16 of its delegates if a candidate receives a plurality of the vote. We expect Trump to have a strong chance of finishing above 50% and would recommend spending resources on the other April 26th states.
Seventeen of Pennsylvania’s delegates are bound to the winner, who we expect to again be Donald Trump. The remaining 54 are unbound but assigned by congressional districts. We expect to be competitive, but more importantly, we’re focused on supporting delegate candidates who will work at the convention to nominate the most electable candidate in the fall.
Bottom-line: Donald Trump’s win in New York got him closer to 1,237 delegates and if the #StopTrump movement is serious about stopping him, they should follow this roadmap leading up to the Tuesday, April 26th primaries.