McCain In Trouble: Why He Could Lose His Senate Seat To A Democrat

Phillip Stucky | Political Reporter

Incumbent Senator and former presidential candidate John McCain could very easily lose his seat in November, paving the way for democratic control of the Senate.

McCain is running on two fronts: he has yet to survive a primary race filled with challengers, although there are only two others polling in double digits according to a recent public policy polling poll. In that primary, McCain is facing record low approval numbers, 39 percent of all likely voters like McCain.

He is also facing criticism from Trump that started with his initial attack calling into question the Senator’s war record. McCain is also facing opposition from conservatives who label the incumbent as being too “establishment,” despite his running as a so-called maverick in the 2008 presidential election. Although facing tough opposition, he is still polling well at 13 points over the closest challenger, although certainly not at a commanding lead at 36 percent.

The true test lies in the general election. Those numbers are much closer. In a head to head poll against the democratic contender, McCain has just barely been able to create a six point lead, although other polls have McCain virtually tying the democratic candidate.

Arizona has a unique electorate, there is a large population of hispanic voters compared to the rest of the nation, and even among Republicans overall, there is still only 65 percent of likely Republican voters who are comfortable with Trump as the Republican nominee. Even further, a full 61 percent of likely voters support giving Obama Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland a hearing in his bid for the highest court in the land.

McCain told reporters he understands that this is a serious election, one that he will need to work hard to win. McCain said that it was time to understand the masses of republican voters who supported Trump in the primary, although he made sure to state that he didn’t agree with several things that Trump has said, including the front-runners attacks on the Federal Judge overseeing the Trump U case. If McCain were to lose the general election, it would be a serious blow to the Republican majority in the Senate.

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