Polling In The Key Battleground States Show A Tight Election

REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson (L) and Jim Urquhart

Alex Pfeiffer White House Correspondent
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Like most recent presidential elections, battleground states are going to determine who wins the 2016 race. Right now, Clinton leads Trump in many of the key battleground states — but most of these leads do not amount to significant margins.


The latest poll out of the Sunshine State shows Trump in the lead. The New York real estate developer is leading with 47 percent, Clinton follows with 42 percent, and Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson has just 2 percent.

The JMC Analytics poll was conducted on July 9 and 10 following the Orlando shooting. This poll in fact shows that Trump is leading Clinton 49 percent to 36 percent among Hispanic voters. While the presumptive Republican nominee has expressed harsh rhetoric towards Mexicans this election, there aren’t many in Florida compared to other heavily Latin states.

Another recent poll out of Florida from BayNews9 shows Clinton leading Trump 46 percent to 42 percent. This poll breaks down Hispanic voters by non-Cuban ones and Cubans. While Clinton is leading with non-Cubans 61 percent to 26 percent, Trump is leading among Cubans 45 percent to 34 percent. Cubans are the largest Latin ethnic group in Florida.

A Gravis poll from late June shows Clinton ahead of Trump 49 percent to 45 percent.


There is not much polling out of Nevada, but the only one in the last two months is luckily recent. A Monmouth University poll shows Hillary leading Trump 45 percent to 41 percent. Gov. Johnson notches 5 percent in this poll. The poll shows both Clinton and Trump suffering from equally bad favorability numbers. Thirty-five percent of voters view Trump favorably, while 53 percent have an unfavorable view of him. Thirty-four percent of voters view Clinton favorably, while 54 percent see her unfavorably.

The poll was conducted July 7 to July 10, after the announcement that Clinton would not be indicted for her use of a private email server while serving as secretary of state. Though 44 percent of Nevadans polled still believed Clinton had committed a crime, an additional 27 percent believe she showed poor judgement by using a private email server.

North Carolina:

A late June poll of North Carolina from CBS News/YouGov has Hillary leading Trump 44 percent to 42 percent. The poll, like many, has voters split among race and gender.

Male voters support Trump 45 percent to 41 percent for Clinton. With female voters Clinton is leading 47 percent and Trump has 39 percent of their support. Trump leads among white voters with 53 percent of their backing, 32 percent of white North Carolinians polled support Clinton.

Hillary leads among black voters 85 percent to 6 percent.

Another June poll, conducted June 21 to June 23 by Civitas, shows Clinton leading 42 percent and Trump behind by a hair with 40 percent. Johnson gets 6 percent in this poll, and ten percent of voters are undecided.

“At this point in the 2008 election, John McCain led Barack Obama 45-41—  a four-point lead,” Civitas president Francis De Luca said. “Making assumptions based on a lead of just a few points, five months before the general election, would be foolish.”

Obama won North Carolina with 49.7 percent of the vote.


The most recent poll out of Ohio shows Trump leading 47 percent to 46 percent, with 7 percent supporting “other.” The Gravis poll was of 1,270 registered voters and was conducted on June 27 and June 28.

Another June poll, this one from Public Policy Polling, has Clinton leading Trump 44 percent to 40 percent.

A Quinnipiac University poll conducted June 8 – 19 has Clinton and Trump tied at 40 percent. Fifty-seven percent of Ohioans polled believe Clinton is better prepared to be president, just 33 percent think likewise of Trump.

Forty-four percent of those polled though view Trump as more honest, while 37 percent think Clinton is the more trustworthy candidate.


There is only one recent poll out of Iowa and it is a June survey from Loras University. This poll has Clinton with a strong lead over Trump, 44 percent to 30.7 percent. Of the 600 registered Iowa voters polled 60.4 percent are disappointed with the options they have in the general election.

While Clinton leads in the state and is effectively running for a third-Obama term, 56 percent of voters polled believe the country is on the wrong track.

New Hampshire:

A late June poll of New Hampshire has Clinton leading 47 percent to 42 percent. The American Research Group poll shows 55 percent of men back Trump and 37 percent back Clinton. Hillary though leads with women 57 percent to Trump’s 30 percent.

A June poll from Public Policy Polling also shows Clinton leading 43 percent to 39 percent.


The most recent poll out of Pennsylvania has Clinton and Trump essentially tied. Clinton leads Trump 48 percent to 47 percent in a late June Gravis poll.

A June Public Policy Polling poll also has Clinton in the lead. Hillary has 46 percent and Trump follows with 42 percent.

A Quinnipiac University poll from June has the race in Pennsylvania tight. Clinton is in the lead with 39 percent, Trump has 36 percent, Johnson gets 9 percent, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein notches 4 percent support.

Fifty-two percent of Pennsylvania voters polled believe Trump would be better at creating jobs, 39 percent think Clinton would be better. Fifty-four percent polled think Clinton would be better responding to an international crisis, and 38 percent think likewise of Trump.

The Daily Caller has previously reported on how the Trump campaign is especially focused on winning Pennsylvania.


A CBS News/YouGov poll of Colorado from late June has Clinton and Trump neck and neck. Clinton is ahead with 40 percent, followed by Trump with 39 percent, and Johnson with 4 percent. The poll shows that 43 percent of Clinton supporters and 55 percent of Trump supporters back their respective candidate out of disdain for their opponent.

Sixty percent of Coloradans polled believe the U.S is not doing enough to combat the threat of terrorism. Trump leads Clinton when to comes to having the right approach to terrorism, 44 percent to Clinton’s 41 percent.