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As Trump Rises, The Mexican Peso Falls

(REUTERS/Lucas Jackson)

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JP Carroll National Security & Foreign Affairs Reporter
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An increasingly tight U.S. presidential campaign that could lead to a Donald Trump presidency increasingly has the Mexican peso falling according to U.S. banking giant Citigroup on Monday.

The bank’s emerging-markets strategists Kenneth Lam and Dirk Willer stated in a research note that the GOP nominee’s, “anti-Mexico rhetoric,” the U.S. election presents clear risks to the Mexican peso.” Economist Enrique Camacho told Univision that, “We don’t know who will win [the U.S. election], but the closer we get [to election day], the more it will affect the Mexican peso.”

Citigroup’s Lam and Willer went on to note that, “While in the end, campaign rhetoric may not become reality, not to mention serious doubts about the legality of some of the proposed actions, a high degree of uncertainties will weigh on the peso.” One of the uncertainties that the bearish bankers are referring to is Trump’s pledge to, “On day 1,” make money transfer firms such as Western Union, deny services to illegal immigrants trying to send remittances home as a a strategy for forcing the Mexican government to pay for a border wall.

The research note goes on to state that, “We don’t think the ‘Trump risk’ is in the [Mexican peso] price yet in a meaningful way.” Trump has previously caused worries in the Mexican finance community such as when Carlos Serrano, the Chief Economist for the largest Mexican bank, BBVA-Bancomer said in May, “If the polls give him a shot, he will make more noise on the type of exchange [rate for the peso].”

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