Prominent pollster Nate Silver changed his prediction of the general election to give Republican nominee Donald Trump a 15 percent chance of winning.
Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has an 85 percent chance of winning, according to the analysis. Silver’s numbers looked much different in the first days of August. Clinton only had a 58 percent chance of winning the election, with Trump at a 34 percent chance of winning.
Both sets of numbers are radically different than Trump’s numbers directly following the July Republican National Convention. Silver reported that Trump had a 58 percent chance of winning if the election were held then, and Clinton had a 44.6 percent chance at that time.
The big change in the ranking of the candidates has to do with disparities in several key states. The historically red state of Georgia is in danger of becoming Democratic, as recent polling in the state indicates it “leans Democrat.”
In earlier weeks, Florida was assigned the classification, “leans Republican,” but the state is now firmly in the grasp of Clinton, who carries a 10 percent lead in the state.
Two more swing states, Virginia and Iowa, are classified as more solidly Democratic than in previous analysis.
Arizona was originally a solid red state, but now is considered a toss-up, after polling across the state revealed a lead for Clinton.
Based on Silver’s analysis, if the elections were held today, Clinton would win 354 electoral votes and the Republican nominee would only garner 183, not enough to win the race. Green Party nominee Jill Stein doesn’t win any electoral college votes, according to the breakdown, while Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson earns a half of a single electoral vote.
The state of Florida has the highest chance of making a statistical difference in the race. Silver gives the state of Florida a 15.8 percent chance it will be the tipping point in the race.
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