Most New Yorkers Think Trump Will Lose In New York

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Phillip Stucky Political Reporter
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Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s is leading Republican Donald Trump in their home state of New York by 30 points, and 72 percent of voters reported they felt Clinton would win, according to a new statewide poll published Monday by Siena College.

The most surprising response in the poll was to the question, “regardless of your preference for President, who do you think is most likely to be the next President of the United States?”

Seventy-two percent of voters reported they believed Hillary Clinton would win the general election in November, and only 23 percent said the same of Trump. Only 35 percent of Republicans in the state reported that Trump would win, leaving 57 percent reporting the Democratic nominee would win. Eight percent of Republicans reported they didn’t have an opinion on the matter.

Democrats were more likely to report that Clinton would win at 85 percent, but a small 11 percent of Democrats felt Trump would win the nomination.

In the head to head poll, Clinton earned a staggering 57 percent. The last Siena College poll in the race was published in the beginning of July, and awarded Clinton a 23 point lead against Trump with 54 percent. Clinton’s newest number is the highest Clinton has polled in the state to date.

Trump’s numbers decreased from 31 percent last month to a strikingly low 27 percent statewide. Trump lost with both male and female voters, but did well with self-reported conservatives, earning 57 percent of the vote among that demographic.

“Despite Trump’s claims to carry New York, the Empire State seems firmly planted on the blue side of the map, as Clinton holds a commanding 30-point lead in a head-to-head matchup and a similarly strong 25-point, two-to-one lead in a four-way matchup,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said in the accompanying statement.

“New Yorkers have voted Democratic in the last seven presidential elections and there does not appear to be a real threat to end that streak.

Trump also lost his other key demographics in the state-wide poll. No age category favored Trump over Clinton. In national polls, most voters over the age of 60 support the Republican nominee. Trump also lost with white voters, in addition to every minority group polled.

Perhaps the biggest deviation from national polls was the question asking what issue was the most important for voters. According to the poll, “jobs and the economy” was both the first most important issue, and the second most important.

There is a problem with the way the question was structured, however. Other national polls allow up to 10 different choices, including the words “terrorism” and “threats from terror.” This poll offered no such choice, opting instead for the much more ambiguous “keeping America Safe.” This choice on the part of the pollsters could have an unintended effect of skewing the numbers to make “jobs and the economy” higher in the rankings.

The Siena College Research Institute conducted the poll from August 7th through the 10th, and surveyed 717 registered voters in the State of New York. The margin of error in the head to head polls was plus or minus 4.3 percent, no margin of error was reported for the crosstabs in the poll.

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