Elections

Three Battleground States Trump Could Lose

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Phillip Stucky Political Reporter
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Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia are three swing states that heavily favor Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton over Republican nominee Donald Trump, according to a Politico analysis released Thursday.

Political scientists agree. All three states are listed as “likely Democratic” in the UVa Center for Politics’ Crystal Ball rankings, and Clinton has high percentages in the latest 538 analysis. Clinton has a 67.2 percent chance of winning New Hampshire, a 75.7 percent chance of winning Colorado, and an 81.2 percent chance of winning Virginia according to the statistics tracking site.

The most recent Quinnipiac University poll gave Clinton a 10 point lead in Colorado. Clinton also leads by 5 points in the latest Emerson University poll in New Hampshire. Polling in Virginia is much different. Although Clinton held a strong 12 point lead in the middle of August, the latest poll published early September reflects a near-even tie. The Real Clear Average in the race still gives Clinton a 5 point lead.

“I think the probability of Hillary Clinton carrying New Hampshire is well over 90 percent,” former chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party told Politico.

Trump continues to do well in the swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, although those states are listed as “leans Democratic” by 538.

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