Political statistician Nate Silver just reduced Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s chances at winning the White House.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 15, 2016
As of Thursday, Clinton now has a 62.6 percent chance to win the presidency, compared to Trump’s 37.4 percent. When Clinton collapsed at a 9/11 memorial event, she had a 70.6 percent chance of winning; Trump had a 29.3 percent chance of winning, according to Silver.
Clinton experienced a huge rise in popularity during the month following the Democratic National Convention in July, earning an peak 89.2 percent chance of winning Aug. 14. Trump had a 10.8 percent chance at the time, and has steadily increased his chances since.
Silver’s website, FiveThirtyEight, has a “Now-cast” that shows who would win if the election were held now. It still gives Clinton the lead at 61.1 percent, but the nomination is only one state away from Trump. The swing states of Pennsylvania and Nevada could clinch Trump a spot at the inauguration in January.
Trump overturned Clinton’s seven-point lead in Ohio, netting himself a five-point lead in the most recent Bloomberg poll Tuesday. Clinton also lost her solid 25-point lead in the Democratic stronghold of Washington, D.C. A New York Times national poll revealed Thursday the two major party contenders are tied at 42 percent each.
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