Reuters polling of the nation as of Thursday shows “high confidence” in a win by Republican nominee Donald Trump in heavily-Democratic Vermont.
The Reuters poll did not give a margin for Trump’s victory but instead said it has “high confidence” in a GOP win. According to their polling standards, “a state is reported as ‘high confidence’ for a candidate if they win 95 percent or more of the simulated elections.”
[dcquiz] “For states where the sample is less than 100 respondents, but greater than or equal to 80, and the confidence of victory is moderate or high, then confidence is reported but, because of the expected wide variance in the percentage of voters preferring one candidate or the other, no state percentages are reported,” Reuters’ ‘explainer’ continued to say.
A poll from earlier in September showed Hillary Clinton with a 21 percent lead over Trump in Vermont, which has three electoral votes. A win in Vermont for Trump though would not be out of the picture.
In Rhode Island and Maine, two other heavily-Democratic New England states, the GOP nominee was within three of Clinton. Trump gains almost all of his support from white voters and Clinton is doing historically bad numbers with the voting bloc. Vermont is 96.7 percent white.