World

Kim Jong Un Might Be Bombastic, But He Still Has A Few Explosive Tricks Up His Sleeve

REUTERS/KCNA

Daily Caller News Foundation logo
Ryan Pickrell China/Asia Pacific Reporter
Font Size:

Kim Jong Un might be an overflowing fountain of bombastic and outrageous rhetoric, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the North Korean threat is exaggerated.

“The people of Korea are ready to stage another attack against the provocations of the United States,” North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho said Thursday during a speech at the 17th Non-Aligned Summit in Venezuela. He also confirmed that North Korea is, indeed, ready to conduct another nuclear test at any time.

The North is probably not ready to fight the U.S., but that doesn’t make North Korea any less dangerous.

Kim Jong Un’s bluster comes in two forms: baseless claims and claims tied to actual capabilities, RAND senior defense analyst and North Korea expert Dr. Bruce Bennett told The Daily Caller News Foundation. “I don’t see his bluster being the first type as much as the second. I believe that many of his threats are or will be true.”

North Korea actually has formidable defenses, as well as concerning offensive capabilities. “These are real military capabilities that could kill millions of Koreans,” Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, told the Korea Times.

The North has made strides in missile advancements over the years. Its missile program progressed from artillery rockets in the 1960s and 1970s to short- and medium-range ballistic missiles in the 1980s and 1990s. Since then, North Korea has been working on long-range and intermediate-range missiles.

Kim’s arsenal includes a variety of missiles with different ranges. The short-range KN-02 can hit targets at a range of 74 miles. The Hwasong-5 and Hwasong-6 have ranges of 186 miles and 310 miles, respectively. These missiles also have the ability to be converted for biological, chemical or nuclear use, says BBC. Any one of these North Korean missiles could threaten South Korea’s national security.

Posing a serious threat to Japan’s national security, North Korea’s Nodong missile, which is 50 percent larger than the Hwasong-6, has a range of 800 miles. The intermediate-range Musudan missile can hit targets at a distance of up to around 2,500 miles, which means it could possibly be used against U.S. forces in Guam. North Korea is also working on a submarine-launched ballistic missile, the KN-11, but this project is still in the works given that the first real successful test took place in August of this year.

The Taepodong-2 has a potential range of about 5,000 miles; North Korea asserts that the Taepodong rockets are designed for satellite deployment, but the U.S. suspects that these are intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that are still in the development stage. Tests were conducted in 2006, 2009 and 2012, but all were reported failures.

A 2016 test of the Taepodong-2, which was renamed Kwangmyongsong, was used to successfully deploy a satellite into outer space. The success of the launch indicates that North Korea may be on its way to developing ICBMs.

“North Korea could potentially cause massive damage to Seoul and its surrounding areas,” Bennett told TheDCNF. North Korean military forces also pose a threat to U.S. military forces stationed in South Korea.

“The U.S. military facilities in Seoul and further north can already be struck by the North Korean long-range artillery. Even when many of those U.S. forces move back to Camp Humphreys, where they will be beyond the range of historical North Korean artillery, they will be subject to the KN-09 rocket system with a 124-mile range, as well as by Scud and other theater ballistic missile systems,” Bennett explained.

Prior to 2015, North Korea’s ballistic missile tests were not overwhelmingly successful. Later tests have shown much more promise.

While North Korean ballistic missiles may be highly inaccurate, “it is possible that North Korean missiles are guided by the use of the Russian version of GPS,” Bennett told TheDCNF. While North Korea’s missile technology tends to get a lot of attention, North Korea’s offensive power appears to be largely derived from its artillery capabilities. “With regard to North Korean artillery, the sheer volume of North Korean fire would be daunting in a conflict.” Bennett said, adding, “Quantity has a certain quality of its own.”

North Korea’s artillery units are mobile and fire multiple rounds at once. They pack a punch and can be quickly relocated, making them a challenge in both preemptive strike and reactionary retaliation situations. As of 2011, North Korea reportedly had around 20,500 artillery pieces stationed beyond the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), according to a 2012 report from the Nautilus Group.

Since this study is now outdated, North Korea’s artillery collection is likely to have grown. More importantly, the North could attach chemical and biological weapons systems to its rocket artillery units.

Purely looking at the numbers, North Korea has certain noticeable advantages over its southern neighbor in military personnel and total number of land and naval weapons. North Korea, for instance, has a surprisingly large number of submarines. The South, however, has an advantage when it comes to manpower, air assault, logistics and financial capabilities.

The North would face numerous difficulties if it tried to launch a protracted campaign or overwhelm South Korea’s defenses. For this reason, North Korea is putting greater stock in the development of unconventional weaponry.

Pyongyang has reportedly invested in asymmetric attack capabilities, such as cyber warfare, electronic warfare and special operations. More troubling perhaps is North Korea’s pursuit of a nuclear weapons arsenal.

North Korea claimed that it has figured out how to mount a nuclear bomb on a ballistic missile after it conducted its fifth nuclear test earlier in September. “It is relatively likely that North Korea can put a nuclear weapon on a ballistic missile,” Bennett explained, “The Scuds and other theater ballistic missiles may be able to carry nuclear weapons already, and if not now, certainly within the next few years.”

While South Korea and the U.S. are much better equipped for a prolonged conflict with North Korea, engaging in such a conflict would be a challenge.

“It is not clear that the United States and the South have the resources for a protracted North Korean campaign either. U.S. defense budgets have not been plentiful in recent years, and the expenditures of the especially precision munitions in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan have tended to deplete many key U.S. munition stockpiles,” said Bennett. Round two of the Korean War is not in the best interests of any of the parties involved in this issue.

The U.S. has called for increasingly stringent sanctions against North Korea in response to North Korean provocations. The U.S. and South Korea also plan to deploy a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile shield in Seongju next year.

South Koreans are divided on the missile shield, as it may be limited in its ability to defend South Korea. Additionally, the U.S. has called for China to put greater pressure on North Korea, but China has said that the North Korean problem is not its responsibility. “There are, at the moment, no constraints that would prevent North Korea from expanding its arsenal,” Lewis told reporters. Kim Jong Un has called attempts to rein in the North “laughable.” 

“I think Kim Jong Un is very predictable. He will continue to work toward a nuclear-armed force that includes solid-fueled missiles, as well as intercontinental ballistic missiles that can reach the United States,” Lewis explained to The Korea Times.

The next U.S. president will want to take steps to quickly curb Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions before its existing weapons programs reach the next stage of development.

The U.S. should make defense against incoming rounds a priority and invest more in ground-based interceptors, suggests American Enterprise Institute research fellow Michael Mazza. The U.S. can also continue to put pressure on North Korea through sanctions and other means, as well as reach out to China.

The U.S. might also consider the benefits of diplomacy. There is the possibility, though, that as long as the Kim regime is in place, the North Korean nuclear threat will continue to be an issue affecting East Asian security.

Follow Ryan on Twitter

Send tips to ryan@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.

All content created by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent and nonpartisan newswire service, is available without charge to any legitimate news publisher that can provide a large audience. All republished articles must include our logo, our reporter’s byline and their DCNF affiliation. For any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.