Nate Silver Post-Debate Poll Predictions: Clinton Will Rise
Statistician Nate Silver expects Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton to rise in the polls after the first presidential debate, according to an op-ed published Tuesday.
“Democrats woke up on Monday to a spate of bad polls for Hillary Clinton, which brought Donald Trump to perhaps his closest position yet in the Electoral College,” Silver said.
“They had reason to go to bed feeling a lot better. Clinton bested Trump in the first presidential debate according to a variety of metrics, and the odds are that she’ll gain in head-to-head polls over Trump in the coming days.”
Silver cited a CNN/ORC poll of debate watchers that revealed Clinton won by a large 35 percent difference. The poll, however, only included 521 registered voters who watched the debate.
“Post-debate surveys like CNN’s aren’t always popular with poll mavens, in part because the universe of poll-watchers may not match the electorate overall,” Silver wrote.
“The voters in CNN’s poll were Democratic-leaning by a net of 15 percentage points, for instance, a considerably wider advantage than Democrats are likely to enjoy on Election Day,” he continued.
Silver also asserted that the CNN poll reveals an interesting trend in electoral history, saying that 2012 nominee Mitt Romney did well in his initial debate and experienced a short 5 percent rise in the polls, which was erased within just a few weeks.
“There’s not necessarily any guarantee she’d hold on to those gains — Romney didn’t in 2012. But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves, and consider various aggravating and mitigating factors for Clinton in terms of her potential for an immediate post-debate bounce,” Silver wrote.
Silver cited betting markets, focus groups, and other factors that revealed a stronger Clinton win Monday. He also mentioned Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling, which revealed Clinton won 51 percent to Trump’s 40 percent.
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