Professor Allan J. Lichtman successfully predicted every popular vote since 1984, and his simple system predicts Republican nominee Donald Trump will win Nov. 8, according to a Friday report.
Lichtman asserts that his 13 key questions can predict “well ahead of time” who will win the election, reports The Washington Post.
“The keys basically assess the strength and performance of the party holding the White House,” Lichtman said.
“There are 13 keys. An answer of true on these true/false questions always favors the reelection of the party in power. And if six or more of the 13 keys are false, the party in power, the party holding the White House, is the predicted loser — any six or more.”
“Early on, the keys were inconclusive. That is, remember, six or more and the party in power is the predicted loser. And for some time, there were five keys out against the incumbent Democrats,” Lichtman explained.
“That sixth key has turned against the Democrats, and that is the third party key, and that is based on an assessment that you would expect the third party candidate, in this case the Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson, to get five percent or more of the vote.”
Lichtman asserts that the fact that Johnson did so well indicates a dissatisfaction with the Party in charge of the White House.
“That’s a big sign of discontent with the party holding the White House. And so, again on the knife edge, you had exactly six fatal keys against the incumbent Democrats,” Lichtman said.
Lichtman finally explained that his predictor is based on history, adding that this could be an election that is so radically different from anything the country has seen before to upset his prediction.
“I do think this election has the potential to shatter the normal boundaries of American politics and reset everything, including, perhaps, reset the keys to the White House. Look, I’m not a psychic. I don’t look at a crystal ball,” Lichtman added.
“The keys are based on history. And they’re based on a lot of changes in history, they’re very robust. But there can come a time when change is so cataclysmic that it changes the fundamentals of how we do our politics, and this election has the potential — we don’t know yet, but it has the potential.”
Clinton currently has a 5.2 percent lead in the Real Clear national polling average in the head to head poll. Trump is behind with 42.1 percent, and Clinton has 47.3 percent.
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