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Pentagon Revises Estimate On Big ISIS Offensive, And It Doesn’t Look Good

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Saagar Enjeti White House Correspondent
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Pentagon officials privately admitted the operation to retake the Islamic State’s capital may not be launched for months, contradicting previous claims the operation would start in “weeks, not months.”

“I’ve never heard anyone say that,” a senior U.S. Commander reportedly told The Daily Beast when U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter pledged to start the operation. Carter’s pledge seemed to indicate a coordinated ground operation would begin against Raqqa in the coming weeks.

Instead, the only concrete plan is to ramp up U.S. airstrikes on positions in and and around Raqqa in the coming weeks. The lack of plans comes despite reported Pentagon fears that ISIS militants are actively planning western attacks in the capital. U.S.-backed forces found evidence of Syrian ISIS connections to terrorist plots in Europe when they retook the city of Manbij in September, Army Lt. Gen. Stephen Townsend told reporters Oct. 26.

Pentagon officials were already hedging on their commitment to retake the ISIS capital Monday. “This is one of the situations in which we have contacts and influence over all the actors. But we’re not in perfect control,” a U.S. defense official told The Washington Post.

The major roadblock to the Pentagon’s plans come from U.S. and NATO ally Turkey, which heavily object to the main U.S. proxy in Syria. The U.S. plan to retake Raqqa hinges on the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The SDF is composed of an ethnic coalition of fighters concentrated on fighting ISIS over the Assad regime. The SDF draws significant pushback from NATO ally Turkey, for its dependence on ethnic Kurdish forces. Turkey claims to have killed 200 U.S.-backed fighters as recently as Oct. 20.

Turkey invaded northern Syria in late August, 2016, specifically to prevent Kurdish SDF forces from controlling too much territory. Turkey regards a Kurdish state as a threat to its existence, just as it views ISIS.

“We’re going to go with who can go, who’s willing to go soon,” Townsend told reporters, indicating Kurdish fighters will participate in the Raqqa operation.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reportedly urged President Barack Obama not to allow Kurdish fighters to participate in the operation, but Obama told him the decision was final.

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