Trump’s Lead Among ‘Certain’ Voters Means Race May Be Closer Than It Appears
Unusually obstinate Donald Trump voters may mean he will do better in the voting booth Nov. 8 than top-line polling data indicates with only a few days left in the 2016 campaign.
Although former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Trump are neck-and-neck in many polls, one obscure statistic could be a sign that Trump’s supporters are more likely to go the polls and cast their ballot for the Republican nominee.
A new Rasmussen poll of 1,500 likely voters found the two White House seekers tied at 44 percent each. But drill a little deeper and among survey respondents who are “certain” how they will vote, Trump is ahead by a massive 10 points, at 53 percent to 43 percent.
Fourteen percent of those surveyed said they still might change their mind; more of them like Clinton, at 41 percent, than Trump, at 30 percent. A quarter of the undecideds are leaning towards Libertary Party nominee, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson.
That means that when the top-line number shows a tie at 44 percent, six percent of Hillary’s 44 percent are ambivalent about voting for her, compared to only four percent of Trump’s 44 being undecided about him.
In other words, Trump leads among dead-set voters, 40 to 38 percent. And Trump will have an easier time flipping the lukewarm ones, since more of Clinton’s supporters back her only tepidly. (RELATED: Trump Surging, Now Tied With Clinton In Michigan)
The larger pools of persuadable voters, however, are those backing Libertarian Gary Johnson. A quarter of them who had a favorite, but were open to changing liked him. Neither Clinton nor Trumo, however, has tried very hard to gain support among voters who mostly just want government to stay out of their way both on social and fiscal issues, and treat people as individuals.
Another four percent of the Rasmussen survey respondents had no preference whatsoever.
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