Trump Surging In National Polls; Clinton Drops Below 270 In CNN’s Electoral Map

Hillary Clinton: Lucas Jackson/Reuters

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Ted Goodman Contributor
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Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton dipped below 270 electoral votes in CNN’s electoral map Friday as Republican nominee Donald Trump makes a late surge for the White House.

The most recent national polls have Trump within one or two points of Clinton, and well within the margin of error. Fox News released a poll Friday, with Trump behind Clinton; 45-44. An IBD/TIPP Tracking poll has Clinton holding on to a three-point lead; 46-43. An LATime/USC poll, which polled voters from Oct. 29-Nov.4, had Trump up 48-43 over Clinton, but that poll is an outlier compared to a compilation of recent surveys.

Clinton enjoyed double-digit leads just two weeks ago, with many pundits wondering if she could break 400 electoral votes. News that Obamacare premiums would increase by as much as 20 percent in some states along with the FBI’s decision to continue an investigation into the Clinton Foundation raised new questions for independent and undecided voters.
Clinton and her campaign have also been the target of intense scrutiny as a series of dumps from WikiLeaks revealed a web of questionable activity by Clinton confidants and politically damaging communications by Clinton aides, associates and foundation staff.

Trump is attempting to capitalize on the plethora of bad publicity surrounding Clinton, her campaign and her foundation.

Maine’s 2nd

Maine’s 2nd congressional district moved from “battleground” to “lean Republican.” Maine splits up its four electoral votes, with two going to the statewide winner and one going to the winner in each of the two congressional districts.

Trump has made appearances in Maine’s 2nd, hoping to steal at least one electoral vote in a state that usually votes Democrat. The vast 2nd district covers a majority of the state in terms of land, while the 1st district includes the state’s population centers of Portland and Augusta. A recent poll showed that voters in the 2nd district are split between Clinton and Trump.

New Hampshire

CNN moved New Hampshire from “lean Democrat” to “battleground.”A Nov. 3 Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll showed a dead heat between Clinton and Trump for the granite state.  The poll revealed that 52 percent of independent voters said that the FBI announcement made them less likely to vote for Clinton.

Incumbent New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte has rebounded in the waning day of a bruising race against Gov. Maggie Hasson, after being down as many as 8 points just two weeks ago. The embattled Senator has distanced herself from the GOP nominee, telling a local radio station that she wouldn’t want her daughter in a room with Donald Trump or Bill Clinton, but added “this isn’t about my daughter.”


The Cable News Network moved Ohio from from “battleground” to “lean Republican.” Early-voting data out of Ohio revealed a drastic decline in early-vote requests by Democrats compared to this time in 2012. Requests are down 35 percent in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland area), a county which President Barack Obama won by 256,613 in 2012 (Obama won statewide by 166,272).

Recent polls have Trump up five in the Buckeye state, and incumbent Senator Rob Portman is enjoying a 15-point lead over Democratic candidate, Gov. Ted Strickland. Sen. Portman’s appeal may not all “trickle up” to Trump, but along with lower turnout from uninspired democratic voters in the state’s population centers, the GOP nominee is in a strong position in Ohio.

Trump will benefit from a robust state-party apparatus and his own campaign’s strong presence. A federal judge issued a restraining order against the Donald Trump campaign, Roger stone and his Political Action Committee from, conspiring to intimidate, threaten, harass, or coerce voters on Election Day,” after the Ohio Democratic party accused the Republican party of intimidating voters.


John King and company moved Utah from “battleground” to “lean Republican.” Historically a safe Republican state, Utah has voted for the Republican nominee every time since 1964, when the state chose Lyndon Johnson over conservative icon Barry Goldwater.

Recent polls show Trump with a five – seven point lead in Utah, despite 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney’s very public rebuke of Trump. Romney is well respected in Mormon circles, and his opposition to Trump is likely to sway Mormon voters, who were already turned off by his brash style, away from Trump.

Former Washington, D.C. policy professional Evan McMullin entered the race three months ago as the “Never Trump” candidate, and is now focusing his entire campaign in Utah, infuriating Republicans and conservative leaders alike.

Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

CNN also lists Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as “likely democrat” but not “safely democrat.” (RELATED: Trump Surging, Now Tied With Clinton In Michigan)
The two campaigns are focusing on these areas in the final days, with Clinton hosting her Election Day-Eve in Philadelphia. (RELATED: Will Philadelphia Transit Strike Doom Hillary?)

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