Longtime political researcher and director of the UVA Center for Politics Larry Sabato published his final numbers in the 2016 general election, and they don’t look good for Republican nominee Donald Trump.
Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton is set to win 322 electoral votes, according to the center’s Crystal Ball published Monday. Trump can expect 216 electoral college votes, much lower than the 270 required to win the White House.
Republicans also aren’t doing well in the Senate, according to the analysis. The Crystal Ball projects that the GOP will lose control of the Senate with a clean 50/50 break.
House Republicans will still retain control of the lower chamber, keeping 234 seats compared to the Democrats’ 201 seats. Sabato also projects no net partisan change with respect to the number of governors in office nationwide.
Sabato predicts that Trump will lose Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado, and Nevada. Trump will reportedly carry Ohio, Iowa, and Arizona.
Sabato projects Republicans will lose New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Wisconsin senate races to Democratic candidates. Republicans will retain North Carolina, Florida, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, and Arizona. The projection shows Democrats picking up four Senate seats to earn a 50/50 split.
Additionally, the Center for Politics predicts that Democrats will pick up governor seats in North Carolina and Indiana, but Republicans will likely win governorships in Missouri and Vermont, two seats currently held by Democrats.
Political statistician Nate Silver predicts that Republicans will retain control of the Senate, with a 54.6 percent chance that Republicans will earn enough seats to hold a majority.
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