Politics

Polling Firm That Correctly Predicted Trump’s Win Says Ossoff Loses

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Ted Goodman Reporter

A final poll before Georgia’s special election for the 6th district has Republican Karen Handel edging out Democrat Jon Ossoff by almost two points.

Trafalgar Group, a Republican-leaning firm, surveyed over 1,100 likely 2017 special election voters June 17 and 18. The results showed Handel with 50.46 percent support, compared to Ossoff’s 48.59 percent. The slight lead falls within the margin of error of +/-2.9 percent.

The results for those who claimed to have already voted “early” favored Ossoff, who received 51.32 percent to Handel’s 48.48 percent.

Ossoff, a 30-year-old documentary filmmaker, led Handel by as many as seven points just a couple of weeks ago. A May 22 poll by SurveyUSA for Atlanta TV station WXIA showed Ossoff with 51 percent compared to Handel’s 44 percent.

“We think what righted the ship for her was the move toward national defense and anti-terrorism,” Trafalgar Group’s Robert Cahaly told The Daily Caller News Foundation. “That was led by ads from the National Republican Congressional Committee.”

“Nothing can prove how effective that it was more than the fact that Ossoff felt the need to answer that criticism through an ad of his own,” Cahaly said. “He came out with an ad in the final days that said he wasn’t soft on terrorism.”

Handel has criticized Ossoff for the amount of donors that he has outside of Georgia. He raised funds from 8.9 times as many donors in California than donors in Georgia between March 29 and May 31, according to his latest campaign finance reporting. (RELATED: Ossoff Has Nine Times As Many Donors In California Than His Home State Of Georgia)

The Golden State isn’t the only place sending big money to Ossoff. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has poured at least $5 million into the race. National Democratic leaders have invested millions into the race, seeing it as not just a chance to steal a traditionally safe seat from Republicans, but also to send a message that voters are soundly rejecting President Donald Trump.

“Special elections are almost always won based on turnout,” John Yob, CEO of Strategic National and respected political operative, told TheDCNF. “But if Republicans minimized their early vote deficit then it could be a razor finish with a little ballot test momentum at the end being the difference between winning and losing.”

Yob’s firm also correctly predicted Trump’s surge ahead of election day in November. (RELATED: Trump Surging In Michigan)

While the 6th district just narrowly supported Trump over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential race, Rep. Tom Price won the seat by 23 percentage points in November.

Cahaly also point to the tragic shooting of Republican Majority Whip Steve Scalise and four others at a baseball practice last week. Cahaly said it wasn’t the attack itself, but the reactions from the left and even from some Republicans.

“It reminded them, this is what the other side does,” Cahaly explained.

“When they saw people, including Mark Sanford, came on and attacked Republicans,” Cahaly said. “Like somehow conservative rhetoric was the problem that led to this? That reminded people here.”

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