A top economist is warning that U.S. jobs numbers will take a hit from recent hurricanes wreaking havoc in southern states such as Texas and Florida.
Barclays chief economist Michael Gapen appeared on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday, two days before the September jobs report is released to discuss Harvey and Irma’s impact on labor.
“The average hurricane since the 1980s takes about 50,000 off of employment growth,” Gapen said.
Harvey and Irma will both account for about 50,000 jobs.
“The consensus, which we’re pretty much in line with, is roughly 100,000 lower than the recent trend,” Gapen added. “But it’ll be a one-month story. You’ll get it back next month.”
The August jobs report recorded 156,000 new jobs, according to the New York Post.
Hurricanes temporarily disrupt jobs numbers because they interfere in the reporting process. Employers report the number of employees that have worked at least one hour in a month to the federal government during whatever week the 12th day of the month falls in.
In September, the reporting period was from Sept. 10 to Sept. 16. Harvey hit Texas at the end of August, but left behind flooding that lasted for weeks. Irma hit Florida Sept. 10. Both hurricanes caused stopped at least some jobs from being reported, the New York Post reports.
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