Alabamians are in a bind when it comes to Tuesday’s election for the U.S. Senate. Even though Judge Roy Moore, the Republican nominee, got a full-throated endorsement from President Donald Trump, he is still running neck and neck in most polls with Democrat Doug Jones, who trailed Moore by double digits after allegations surfaced last month about Moore’s sexual predations on under-age girls in the 1980s. For one of the reddest states in the nation, the fact that the Republican nominee has not already blown the doors off this race is noteworthy in and of itself. But there’s a new dynamic in the Yellowhammer state that might just allow Alabama to surprise America next week.
The national media is posing Alabama’s choice as a binary one, but it’s not. John Merrill, the secretary of state administering the election, predicts a turnout of less than 20 percent. That means more than 80 percent of registered voters might just sit this election out for want of a motivating choice. On November 27, one of those disaffected voters, retired Marine Colonel Lee Busby said “hold my beer” and threw his hat into the ring as a write-in candidate. With no political experience, and spending about $150, the Tuscaloosa resident was already showing up in state-wide polls, garnering 5 percent in a December 4 Emerson poll of likely voters.
If the vast majority of Alabama voters are so repelled by their major party option, could a non-typical candidate make them think again about whether they actually have a choice beyond the nominal one of an accused child molester or a pro-choice liberal far out-of-step with the Alabama mainstream?
“People are abusing their power and pushing women, children and those under their authority around, and that’s just not right,” Col. Busby observed in a recent Facebook post, reflecting not only on accusations in Alabama but also broader trend in politics, the media and business. “You have to hold people accountable, and until you do, we can only expect more of the same.”
Angry Moore supporters have taken aim at Busby, accusing him of trying to take votes from the Republican nominee and benefit the Democrat. Busby shrugs off this charge, pointing out that, as a lifelong Republican, he shares the values of conservative Alabamians to a greater degree than Moore, who has long commanded a fringe of far-right supporters, but failed in two separate attempts to win the governor’s chair in 2006 and 2010.
How Moore became the nominee speaks to deep dysfunction within the Alabama GOP. The establishment candidate going into the Senate primary was Senator Luther Strange, appointed to fill out the remainder of now Attorney General Jeff Sessions’ term. President Trump officially supported Strange, while his former chief strategist Steve Bannon stumped for Moore. Voters balked then at being strong-armed into supporting Strange, a career lobbyist, and Moore was the protest vote. But in a short span, the worm has turned and it is now Moore who is defending his rear flank.
On November 13th, Alabama GOP Chairwoman Terry Lathan warned state Republicans to think twice before bucking the party’s nominee, threatening anyone who did so would be shut out in the future. Senior Senator Richard Shelby didn’t appear to take the threat seriously when, on November 27th, the announced that he would be writing in his choice for his next colleague. That puts some wind in the sails of a third option, even as tens of millions of dollars pour into the race at the eleventh hour in the form of negative attacks between the major party candidates.
Alabamians face a tough choice, but not an impossible one. Historically, attempts to shoe-horn folks here have backfired, just as an ill-considered pro-Jones superPAC radio ad did last week warning prospective Moore voters that “their communities will know how they voted.” The climate of fear that both parties have engendered in recent months serves the state poorly, both in terms of the significant progress Alabama has made over the last several decades and its image externally. Together with the increasingly toxicity of this senate campaign, the fear factor is poisoning prospects for turnout.
But surprises are not unprecedented in Alabama either. If enough fed up Alabamians choose to send a message, Busby, the retired Marine colonel could be a factor in Tuesday’s outcome.
Sam Patten, a political consultant, is a former Bush Administration appointee at the State Department and advises political parties and candidates in the United States and abroad. He has spent the last week in Alabama.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of The Daily Caller.