Editor-in-Chief of the polling website FiveThirtyEight Nate Silver, is giving Alabama Democratic candidate Doug Jones a 30 percent chance of upsetting Republican candidate Roy Moore in Tuesday’s U.S. Senate race.
“I still think Moore is favored, although not by much,” Silver wrote on the website Monday. “Jones’s chances are probably somewhere in the same ballpark as Trump’s were of winning the Electoral College last November (about 30 percent).”
Silver achieved infamy during the 2016 presidential election when he predicted former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had a whopping 71 percent chance of defeating President Donald Trump, and would win 323 votes in the electoral college.
Silver believes Jones must win over all of the swing voters, and needs a “lopsided turnout in his favor” to pull out a close victory.
“If either one goes wrong for Jones, Moore will probably win narrowly (and if both go wrong, Moore could still win in a landslide),” Silver concluded.
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