As November quickly approaches, politicians and their supporters on both side of the political aisles will be holding their collective breath.
Will Republicans hold the Senate and House? Or will Democrats see a surge in support and take back one or both houses of Congress?
The determining factor will be millennials and whether they vote.
The special elections in Alabama for Senate and Virginia for Governor both saw major increases in millennial turnout and support for the Democrat candidates. In Alabama, the Democrat, Doug Jones, won millennials by a 20-point margin. Virginia’s gubernatorial race saw a millennial turnout of 34 percent, doubling from 2009. Ralph Northman, the Democrat in Virginia won 69 percent of millennial voters, far out pacing Republican Ed Gillespie.
A recent Pew Research Center poll found that millennials support Democrats to Republicans by a margin of 62 percent to 29 percent — numbers that haven’t changed much since the 2016 elections. But, what has changed is the level of enthusiasm among this group. Their level of enthusiasm has increased dramatically, and enthusiasm that can change the trajectory of the midterms.
Harvard’s latest Institute of Polling analysis observes:
“Young Democrats are driving nearly all of the increase in enthusiasm; a majority (51%) report that they will ‘definitely’ vote in November, which represents a 9-percentage point increase since November 2017 and is significantly larger than the 36 percent of Republicans who say the same. At this point in the 2014 election cycle, 28 percent of Democrats and 31 percent of Republicans indicated that they would “definitely” be voting. In the Spring of 2010, 35 percent of Democrats and 41 percent of Republicans held a similar interest in voting.”
President Donald Trump won states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania — and came pretty close to winning deep blue Minnesota — because of how the youth vote shook out. President Trump either tied or came close to beating Hilary Clinton among young voters in these states. He was able to this because his message was received well by generations of American workers left behind by Democrats in those once great rustbelt states filled with vibrant factories stamping their products with the words “Made in America.”
Another reason the president’s win was Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. She was unable to inspire and motivate young people to get out and vote. She brought no enthusiasm, authenticity and relatability.
Now, in 2018, millennials are finding enthusiasm and it appears to revolve around opposing President Donald Trump and his agenda.
If this enthusiasm coming in the form of “resistance” turns into votes it could be very bad for Republicans and the president’s agenda. And evidence of this enthusiasm is seen in the exit polls numbers and results in several key special elections since 2016.
The good news for Republicans is that it is not too late for the White House and Republicans to start reaching out to young voters and show them how the tax cuts have helped the economy and how their policies have not excluded anyone from achieving the American dream.
Winning over independent millennials is key to holding onto Congress and for the president to win re-election in 2020. Right-wing Republican millennial organizations do a great job at energizing young Republicans, but they have little appeal to independent and Democratic millennials. Reaching these voters take finesse, intuition, the right messaging and the proper safe space (unfortunately) for Republican principles and ideas to flourish.
Salvator J. La Mastra is a freelance writer and also a dentist.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of The Daily Caller.