Likely Challenges To The INEVITABLE Regime Change In Iran

Iran protest Getty Images/David McNew

Hamid Bahrami Human right and political activist
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Traditionally, oil traders do not favor a change in the balance of power in Iran. This has been the reality for many decades but now the world has witnessed the willingness of the Iranian people to overthrow their oppressor.

For example, during the 1979 revolution in Iran, which overthrew the notorious American backed monarchy of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the West could not prevent the collapse of the Shah.

Today, however, as Iranian regime is sinking in various economic and social crises, many Iran pundits believe regime change is inevitable in the near future.

Since the beginning of 2018, the Iranian people have taken to the streets to protest the regime. The chants during the demonstrations make clear they want the overthrow of the theocratic regime.

In this regard, tens of thousands of supporters of Iran’s main opposition movement, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), gathered in a massive convention hall, in Villepinte, Paris over the weekend.

The convention, famously named FreeIran2018 gathering, echoed the Iranian people’s demand for change and called on the international community to back their democratic aspirations by recognizing the NCRI as a real alternative to the mullahs’ theocracy.

The FreeIran Convention is by far the largest gathering of Iranians abroad. More than 33 prominent American dignitaries, parliamentary delegations from all around the world including the United Kingdom, the EU, Canada and the Middle East as well as President Trump’s confidant Rudy Giuliani and informal adviser Newt Gingrich, former Prime Minister of Canada Stephen Harper and many prominent political dignitaries attended this year gathering in Paris.

The keynote speaker at the event was the NCRI President-elect, Mrs Maryam Rajavi. In her speech that was also broadcast inside Iran, she pointed to the five signs that define the phase of the mullahs’ overthrow.

“The most important signal of the phase of the overthrow is that the very development which the mullahs feared the most has happened: the linkage between the fury of the deprived and oppressed and the organized Resistance movement”, Mrs Rajavi said adding “as the mullahs have practically lost their nuclear deal and the avalanche of successive sanctions is hitting them hard, the era of labeling, bombing and suppressing the opposition at the behest of the regime has come to an end.”

On the other hand, in his remark at the convention, the former mayor of New York, Rudy Giuliani said, “here, we have an alternative to the Regime that is built on democracy, human rights, and separation of church and state. That’s what the NCRI stands for, that’s what Maryam Rajavi stands for.”

Giuliani also announced that all 32 American dignitaries had signed a statement to support Maryam Rajavi and the NCRI.

The former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representative, Newt Gingrich, highlighted in his remarks, the “need to show the Iranian people that we are on their side and on the right side of history.”

Iran is in fact a country with cultural and ethnic diversity, formed by at least five different ethnic minorities, including the Fars, Turks, Kurds, Arabs, and Balochis.

Some Iran pundits, experts and Western diplomats claim that a majority of the Iranian people are concerned about likely chaos after a regime change. These voices, some of them genuinely concerned but many proponents of appeasing Tehran, claim that people’s concerns include the lack of an alternative or disintegration of the country.

Both Iran’s society and the world power must be assured of the transition period following the change. Historically, major successful and stable changes were led by organized oppositions.

In the case of Iran, the existence of a viable, competent democratic alternative in the NCRI will prevent a power vacuum and remedy any imaginable conflict that could emerge after regime change.

In reality, when people of a nation present and support a popular alternative to a ruling tyranny, it means that they hope for and are ready to bring about change.

The NCRI is the largest and the most organized Iranian opposition, formed by a broad coalition of Iranian organizations, groups, and personalities with diversity of thought and pan-Iranian ethnicities. The coalition has also a progressive and democratic platform for future of Iran, which was presented by NCRI President-elect Mrs Maryam Rajavi a decade ago. \

Today, as the protests continue in Iran, the United States, the European Union and the international community should recognize the NCRI and its 10-point democratic platform as an alternative to the current theocracy and a roadmap to overcome possible challenges following the change in Iran, the most important country in the Middle East.

Hamid Bahrami is a former political prisoner from Iran who now resides in Glasgow, Scotland. He is a human right and political activist and works as a freelance journalist. He tweets at @HaBahram and blogs at analyzecom.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of The Daily Caller.