Real Clear Politics Senior Elections Analyst Challenges Nate Silver’s Prediction, Increases Republicans’ Shots At Winning House
Real Clear Politics senior elections analyst Sean Trende challenged pollster Nate Silver’s midterm predictions on “Fox & Friends” Wednesday, but said Democrats are still in better shape than Republicans.
“Nate [Silver] is a great analyst,” Trende said. (RELATED: Real Clear Politics Analyst Sees Republicans On The Rise In Battleground States Due To Kavanaugh Controversy)
“He has a great track record. I think he’s a little bit too bullish on the Democrats right now. I’d put the Republican chances more in the 1-in-4 to 1-in-3 range. I think right now, I’d certainly rather be the Democrats than the Republicans.”
Silver gives Republicans only a 1-in-7 chance of retaining the House on FiveThirtyEight.com.
“It is a problem. If you throw a lot of money into some of these very red districts, where you don’t have a great shot, but you might bring your vote share up and waste effectively a bunch of votes — you might win the national vote by a lot, but you’re not going to pick up these seats,” he continued. “So, it’s potentially a problem for Democrats.”
“It’s been record-breaking, the amount of money that’s flowing into these elections,” Trende said.
“Some of it is going to be well-spent. Some of it is going to be pouring $40, $50 million into Beto O’Rourke’s campaign in Texas where he’ll do well, but he’s probably not going to win.”
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