Real Clear Politics senior elections analyst Sean Trende challenged pollster Nate Silver’s midterm predictions on “Fox & Friends” Wednesday, but said Democrats are still in better shape than Republicans.
“Nate [Silver] is a great analyst,” Trende said. (RELATED: Real Clear Politics Analyst Sees Republicans On The Rise In Battleground States Due To Kavanaugh Controversy)
“He has a great track record. I think he’s a little bit too bullish on the Democrats right now. I’d put the Republican chances more in the 1-in-4 to 1-in-3 range. I think right now, I’d certainly rather be the Democrats than the Republicans.”
Silver gives Republicans only a 1-in-7 chance of retaining the House on FiveThirtyEight.com.
“It is a problem. If you throw a lot of money into some of these very red districts, where you don’t have a great shot, but you might bring your vote share up and waste effectively a bunch of votes — you might win the national vote by a lot, but you’re not going to pick up these seats,” he continued. “So, it’s potentially a problem for Democrats.”
“It’s been record-breaking, the amount of money that’s flowing into these elections,” Trende said.
“Some of it is going to be well-spent. Some of it is going to be pouring $40, $50 million into Beto O’Rourke’s campaign in Texas where he’ll do well, but he’s probably not going to win.”
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