Trump May Be In Danger Of Losing North Carolina In 2020, Says Poll
President Donald Trump may be in danger of losing North Carolina in 2020, according to an Elon University poll released Monday.
The poll found that 48 percent of registered North Carolina voters would vote for any Democrat to survive the primary process over Trump, compared to just 36 percent who said they would support the president no matter who ran against him.
Trump defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the state in 2016, earning 49.8 percent compared to the Democrat’s 46.2 percent. North Carolina has 15 electoral votes.
When limited to Democratic voters, former Vice President Joe Biden led the pack in the primary with 55 percent of the vote. Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders took second with a respectable 44 percent. (RELATED: Trump 2020 Team Has Massive Plan That Relies On 2016 Victory)
“Consistent with many others polls, we find President Trump maintains strong loyalty among registered Republicans in North Carolina,” said Jason Husser, poll director and associate professor of political science at Elon University.
“However, unaffiliated voters are currently breaking toward a hypothetical Democratic candidate by a margin that could portend serious trouble for the president’s 2020 coalition,” he continued. “That said, I expect many of those voters will change their minds as the Democratic nominee moves from hypothetical to actual; the extent of this change will largely shape what we see in North Carolina over the next 20 months.”
It should be noted that on election day in 2016, only one poll claimed that Trump would take the state. The New York Times, Quinnipiac, and left-leaning Public Policy Polling all showed Clinton winning the race by a significant margin.
North Carolina has voted Republican in every election since 1980 with the exception of President Barack Obama’s first term during the 2008 election. Elon University surveyed 914 registered voters. Researchers contacted 423 by phone or email randomly, and 491 were interviewed online through an opt-in survey. Elon reports a “credibility interval” of 3.5 percentage points in either direction. The survey ran from Feb. 20 through March 7.