Several economists and researchers predict that President Donald Trump would win the 2020 election, according to a report by Politico.
The report, written by Politico’s Ben White and Steven Shepard, cited multiple economic models that claim Trump would “likely ride to a second term in a huge landslide.”
One researcher, Donald Luskin, who is the chief investment officer for TrendMacrolytics, said in an interview with Politico that “the economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it.”
Looking forward to talking to @connellmcshane on @FoxBusiness today at 4:15 EDT, to talk about our 2020 presidential prediction model. It’s calling for a Trump landslide. Here’s a short video about it: https://t.co/dt8FKXYQ3y
— Donald L. Luskin (@DonLuskin) March 21, 2019
per Ray Fair’s vote-share equation forecast: The economy is now titling Republican. https://t.co/v8I3mzFYld
— Catherine Rampell (@crampell) May 23, 2016
Fair predicts that Trump will win the 2020 election with 54 percent of the popular vote while the Democrats will only garner 46 percent, according to the Politico interview. (RELATED: Michael Moore Predicts Trump Wins In 2020 If Dems Run Politician Against Him)
Fair is a pioneer in this type of election forecasting, using a formula model to predict the outcomes of elections.
Fair’s model states that presidential incumbents have an advantage in an election and that the state of the economy also affects the outcome of an election. He also says that voters are less likely to vote for a party that has held the White House for two terms.
The report also included Mark Zandi, who is the chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, who also predicted that Trump would win in 2020.
According to the Politico piece, Zandi tested 12 different economic models for the upcoming presidential race. He says Trump won all 12, and was “quite comfortable in most of them.”
Zandi has also been a critic of Trump stating that he thinks the U.S. economy under Trump “is a trainwreck waiting to happen,” and has criticized the president’s immigration policy. (RELATED: Economists Predict Recession Durin 2020 Election)
Thx again to Mark Zandi for a terrific talk on Tues. Don’t forget: the next recession will hit 10/3/20! Miss the talk in person? Check out the podcast online https://t.co/rKWe7xlD58 (login required)
— Natl Economists Club (@NatlEconClub) March 14, 2019
In Zandi’s models, he uses gas prices, unemployment, other political variables and popularity, as well as looking at economic factors on the state level to forecast the outcome of the election, as reported by Politico.