Business

Media, Politicians Won’t Stop Talking About The Possibility Of A Recession. Does The Reason Why Have To Do With Trump’s Reelection?

Zach Gibson/Getty Images

Daily Caller News Foundation logo
Evie Fordham Politics and Health Care Reporter
  • Members of the media and left-wing politicians have been talking about the possibility of a recession long before experts started discussing warning signs.
  • Some well-respected economists, including former President Barack Obama’s Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, warned that the recession indicators of yesterday may not apply to today.
  • Some on the left have rooted for a recession to get President Donald Trump out of office.

Members of the media and left-wing politicians have been talking about the possibility of a recession long before experts started discussing warning signs like the Dow’s 800-point drop Wednesday, and the reason why could have to do with President Donald Trump’s reelection.

The most egregious example of connecting a recession with Trump failing to secure a second term came from comedian Bill Maher more than a year ago.

“I feel like the bottom has to fall out at some point, and, by the way, I’m hoping for it because I think one way you get rid of Trump is a crashing economy. So please, bring on the recession. Sorry if that hurts people, but it’s either root for a recession or you lose your democracy,” Maher said on HBO’s “Real Time” on June 8, 2018. (RELATED: Trump Jumps On Reports Of Israel Banning Reps. Omar And Tlaib: ‘They Hate … All Jewish People’)

Politicians including Rep. Ted Lieu of California and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, both Democrats, warned of a looming recession after the Dow’s bad day Wednesday.

A monitor displays the day's fluctuations of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ahead of the closing bell on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on August 1, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

A monitor displays the day’s fluctuations of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ahead of the closing bell on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Aug. 1, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

Why did the Dow drop over 700 points this morning [and] why is #TrumpRecession trending? Because the yield on the 10-year Treasury Note broke below the 2-year rate. This inverted yield curve has historically signaled an approaching recession,” Lieu wrote Wednesday on Twitter

His tweet came the same week that CNN ran headlines like this one on an opinion piece: “A global recession may be coming a lot sooner than anyone thought.”

“I don’t think the media is covering recession risks with greater intensity or enthusiasm due to dislike of President Trump,” Republican strategist Bruce Mehlman told the Daily Caller News Foundation on Friday.

“I think the two issues that make it newsworthy and somewhat political are that one, business investment has faced global uncertainty precipitated by the administration’s always aggressive and often unpredictable trade policies, and two, the economy remains the most critical issue for an incumbent president’s reelection,” Mehlman continued.

Analysts have pointed out for months how the state of the economy will affect Trump’s 2020 chances. Mehlman detailed the pluses and minuses facing Trump in 2020 in a July rundown. His fundraising is through the roof, and Trump currently sits in a safe spot with no recession to make voters blame him for their pocketbook issues.

But that could change because of abundant “recession triggers” lying dormant in his administration’s policy, Mehlman said. He pointed to the risk of another federal government shutdown, trade wars with the European Union, China and Mexico as well as “war wars” that could come from increased tension with Iran.

However, some well-respected economists, including former President Barack Obama’s Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, warned that the recession indicators of yesterday may not apply to today.

The US flag flies outside the New York Stock Exchange on March 11, 2019 in New York. (DON EMMERT/AFP/Getty Images)

The US flag flies outside the New York Stock Exchange on March 11, 2019 in New York. (DON EMMERT/AFP/Getty Images)

“So historically, [an inversion of the yield curve] been a pretty good signal of recession, and I think that’s why the markets pay attention to it, but I would really urge on this occasion it may be a less good signal. And the reason for that is that there are a number of factors other than market’s expectations about the future path of interest rates that are pushing down long-term yields,” Yellen told Fox Business Wednesday.

Economist Mohamed El-Erian echoed her claim to CNBC Thursday, citing factors like the European Central Bank’s negative rates.

Meanwhile, members of the media have been filling social media with talk of a recession. New York Times opinion columnist Paul Krugman posted a photo of the “Three Stooges” with the caption, “Live shot of Trump economic team preparing for possible downturn,” in his analysis of a potential recession on Twitter Friday.

“Hard to predict if a recession is coming — but easy to predict Trump team’s response if it does: 1. It’s fake news disseminated by the deep state 2. It’s the Fed’s fault 3. It’s China’s fault 4. It’s Ilhan Omar’s fault 5. Cut taxes on the rich!” Krugman wrote.

Krugman said that Trump’s presidency would trigger a recession as early as 2018.

“[Trump’s] rattled,” an unidentified Republican close to the administration said according to The Washington Post. “He thinks that all the people that do this economic forecasting are a bunch of establishment weenies — elites who don’t know anything about the real economy and they’re against Trump.”

Content created by The Daily Caller News Foundation is available without charge to any eligible news publisher that can provide a large audience. For licensing opportunities of our original content, please contact licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.