Analysis

New Polls Say Trump Is In Striking Distance In Swing States That Could Win Him The Election

(Photo by Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images)

Font Size:

New polling data released Thursday from Monmouth, Quinnipiac, Harper, and Rasmussen show President Donald Trump within striking distance in swing states that could win the president re-election come November 3.

The Monmouth poll, conducted via phone call from August 29 to September 1 with likely voters in North Carolina, shows that Trump trails Biden by just 2% in each of its three samples, 48-46, 48-46, 47-45, respectively. The 2% deficit is within the poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.9%.

Harper places Trump 3 points in the hole in Minnesota, a state that hasn’t voted Republican in a presidential election since 1972. Harper surveyed likely voters from the land of 10,000 lakes, showing the president has narrowed Biden’s 8-point lead since May. The survey, conducted from August 30 to September 1, has a MOE of +/- 4.38%.

Rasmussen says President Trump is polling even with Joe Biden in Pennsylvania, according to a survey of 1,000 likely voters. The sample’s MOE is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% confidence level.

While Quinnipiac polling data released today has Biden up 8% in Pennsylvania, Biden 52% to Trump’s 44% (MOE +/-3%), Quinnipiac has Trump knocking on the door in Florida. Trump is currently down 3 points among likely voters, according to Quinnipiac, with a MOE of +/- 2.8 %.

Polls released yesterday from FoxNews shows the president down by eight points, nine points, and four points in Wisconsin, Arizona and North Carolina, respectively. Morning Consult had Trump down by 10 in Michigan, but up 5 in Ohio September 1. (RELATED: Biden Leads Trump Nationally, Race Tightens In Battleground States Two Months From Election, Polls Show)


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Even if Trump were to lose Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin in 2020 (three states he won in 2016), if Trump carries North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio, like he did in 2016, while flipping Minnesota, Trump will have eked out a victory of 279-259 against Joe Biden.