Poll That Predicted Trump’s 2016 Win Shows Biden Leading By 8.5 Points

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Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds an 8.5-point lead over President Donald Trump just three weeks away from the election, according to the IBD/TIPP 2020 Presidential Tracking Poll.

The poll, which is one of only two polls credited with predicting Trump’s win in the 2016 election according to Investor’s Business Daily, found that 51.9% of likely voters support Biden, while 43.4% support Trump. 2.4% said that they support Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgenson, while 0.8%  support Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins. (RELATED: Trump Narrows Biden’s Lead Despite Unfavorable Debate Performance, New Poll Shows)

Biden enjoys greater support than former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton did in 2016. While the majority of likely voters support Biden in 2020, Clinton only had the support of around 45% of likely voters in the 2016 IBD/TIPP polls leading up to the election, according to the report. Independents also supported Trump 43%-42% in 2016, a Pew Research post-election survey found, while the 2020 IBD/TIPP poll found that Biden has a 9-point lead among independents.

Men support Trump 52%-44% while women support Biden 59%-36%, the poll found. In 2016, men supported Trump by a wider 11-point margin, and Trump had a 15-point deficit among women in 2016 compared to his current 23-point deficit. Additionally, Trump enjoyed the support of white voters by 15 points in 2016, but in the latest poll white voters favor the president 50%-45%.

Black voters overwhelmingly support Biden 89%-8%, and Hispanic voters favor Biden 54%-39%, the poll found.

The economy was the most important issue for voters, with 29% naming it as the most important issue for the 2020 election. The coronavirus was the second-most important issue, followed by health care, law and order, race relations, and the Supreme Court.

The poll surveyed 970 registered voters and 851 likely voters between October 7 and October 11, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. Of the likely voters surveyed, 321 were Democrats, 298 were Republicans and 234 were independents.