Predicting the outcome of this presidential election is harder than hitting a Wiffle ball to right field.
With the totally disastrous polls in 2016 and the dishonest manner in which many of them are still done, it is difficult to say who will win Tuesday. Some polls show Biden up 15 points. They remind me of Hillary.
Polls are often taken to raise money. Show yourself winning and unions, Wall Street, etc. will send money. Corrupt interests seeking future favors will bet on a winning horse. Thus, Biden has shattered fundraising records of late.
I do predict a mess, whether Biden or Trump wins in a landslide. Cheating on mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania and other historically blue states will continue to be an issue.
Ninety-five percent of postal workers are Dems, and they will bury GOP ballots if they can. Corrupt shenanigans in South Florida could hang a few chads, and watch mail-in ballots in Arizona. But the real state to watch early on election night is Ohio. It will report quickly and will be a bellwether. Thanks to Chief Justice John Roberts’ vote, Pennsylvania is likely to be the S-show.
What makes me think Biden will not win by double digits:
- In 2016 only 78% of Republicans backed Trump; this year 96% do. That’s 10,000,000 votes. The number of first-time gun owners spiked – not a Democrat-leaning group.
- In 2016 only 81% of evangelical Christians voted for Trump; this year the number is projected to be 90%.
- In 2016 Trump got just 28% of the Hispanic vote, but this year the “polls” are predicting he will get a record 36.5%. That’s 4.4 million more Trump votes.
- In 2016 Trump got just 45% of the Catholic vote. This year he is projected to win 53%, in part because of support from Hispanic Catholics. That’s 6.2 million votes, a lot in rustbelt blue states.
- In 2016 Trump got just 24% of the Jewish vote, but this year they are predicting he will get 28% or more. Efforts by Jared Kushner in the Middle East helped here. Who knew?!
- Finally, and very importantly, in 2016 Trump got just 8% of the African-American vote. This year “polls” are predicting he will get at least 15% and perhaps as much as 20% of the black vote. That’s 3.4 million more votes for Trump.
Joe is Catholic in name only, like Nancy Pelosi, and he wants the black vote. He left Ash Wednesday services looking like Justin Trudeau and Governor Northam of Virginia at a college party.
Hunter Biden’s laptop stories got buried by media and by the tarnished FBI. When did allegedly taking bribes for your dad — the presidential candidate — not matter in an election? Silicon Valley buries these stories. The mainstream media do not report them.
Also, people are tired of the left calling them “racist” with no basis. As a result, NBA and NFL ratings are way down. Even the World Series ratings are down. Now the Masters in November and college football’s BCS will have to compete with the Civil War.
Here is the election in a nutshell. If black voters in Toledo, Cleveland and Cincinnati do not turn out big for Biden, and if they believe what rapper 50 Cent says (Biden’s tax plan will make him “20 Cent”), then Trump wins. If pampered, college-indoctrinated women in the ‘burbs turn out enough to make up for it and truly trend to Biden because “he is nicer,” then Biden wins. A decidedly blue Ohio ends the drama in this election.
LeBron James gave up money to get traded from Cleveland. The Wright brothers left Ohio to make their “First in Flight,” and future Ohio Senator John Glenn was the first American to orbit the Earth. So if history teaches us anything, men go to great lengths to get out of Ohio.
Lost in the personalities and the dishonest media in this race are the issues. One side wants freedom, less regulation, lower taxes, law and order, and peace. The other side wants socialized medicine, higher taxes, contact tracing you for COVID, control over everything, and more wars of choice.
Ron is a libertarian syndicated op-ed humorist, award-winning author and TV commentator. He can be reached at Ron@RonaldHart.com or on Twitter @RonaldHart.