A pair of pollsters who accurately predicted President Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 analyzed the state of the presidential race during a Tuesday night appearance on Fox News’ “Hannity.”
Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Group and Matt Towery of Insider Advantage, both of whom according to Fox News host Sean Hannity predicted Trump’s victory in 2016, again struck a different tone from most polls that show Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden with a sizeable lead less than a week before Election Day.
The current Real Clear Politics average gives Biden a national lead of 7.1% over Trump.
Cahaly told Hannity that he sees Trump’s chances in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin “in very much the same way” as he saw them in 2016.
“These states are very close, the margins of error are very tight,” he said. “I’ve said it many times, I’m very concerned about voter fraud, especially in Pennsylvania, but this thing is on the edge in these states, there’s no question.”
Trafalgar Group, a Republican polling company that’s rated a C- by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight based on the group’s accuracy and methodology, released a poll Tuesday showing the president leading by less than a percentage point in Pennsylvania, where Trump has been campaigning regularly of late.
Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #PApoll conducted Oct 24-25 shows undecided shrinking and a narrow Trump lead for the first time:
1.0% Und. See Report: https://t.co/qf16dkxcCX pic.twitter.com/Vv3i8R4cK1
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 27, 2020
Towery, whose Insider Advantage holds a B- rating from FiveThirtyEight, told Hannity that he’s “seeing some shifting” in the electorate, with older voters tending to “not be quite as enthusiastic” for Trump while some younger voters are “coming around.”
“We’ve asked a question about how they feel about a shutdown during COVID, and I think this is something we really haven’t talked much about but in the last debate, Joe Biden talked about a dark winter we were headed towards,” he said. “In the last five or six days since that debate, I’ve begun to see this change among younger voters.” (RELATED: ‘The Tide Is Turning’: Jesse Watters Describes The ‘Week That Changed The Race’)
The pollster suggested that the “dichotomy” between Trump and Biden’s messaging on shutdowns as well as the fracking issue are “having a real effect” in Pennsylvania.
Both pollsters agreed that North Carolina was a tight race, with Trump leading slightly. They also predicted that the president would have little problem winning Georgia and Florida.
“We have to remember one thing, Donald Trump is the most dynamic presidential candidate of my lifetime,” Towery said. “I’ve never seen anything like it, and him personally going to these locations and drawing people out particularly in the semi-rural and rural areas where they need to pile those votes up, that’s going to come back home in a big way to Donald Trump on election night, and I don’t think these polls are picking that up.”
The panel ended with a discussion about Trump’s rise in African American support and how, if it holds, it could affect the race.