The nonpartisan Cook Political Report moved Texas into its “tossup” column Wednesday, leaving President Donald Trump with only 125 assured electoral votes in the organization’s election forecast.
The shift reflects Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s inroads across Texas, statewide polls show. Trump leads Biden by 1.3 points in the state, according to FiveThirtyEight, though the site’s average showed the two were running even just three days ago.
Trump beat Hillary Clinton in the state by nine points in 2016, and likely needs to win the state again to have any chance at winning reelection, forecasts show.
Texas’ reported move toward Biden aligns it Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Maine’s 2nd congressional district, which the Cook Report also lists under its “tossup” column. To win reelection, Trump would need to win all of these states and at least two of the seven states that the Cook Report lists as “lean Democratic,” the report noted. (RELATED: Biden Holds Widening Leads In The Rust Belt, Polls Show)
As a result, the Trump campaign has zeroed in on Pennsylvania and Arizona in the final days of the 2020 election, both of which he won in 2016. Trump held three rallies across Pennsylvania on Monday, and is scheduled to hold two in Arizona Tuesday. (RELATED: 6 Days Out — Here’s Where The Election Stands)
If Trump wins all the states that the Cook Report lists as “tossups,” victory in Pennsylvania and Arizona would give him 279 electoral votes. He trails Biden in the two states by 5.1 and 2.8 points, respectively, according to FiveThirtyEight.
The shift also reflects the Biden campaign’s efforts to expand its electoral map. Biden campaigned in Georgia Monday, and is scheduled to speak in Florida, Iowa and Wisconsin later this week, all of which are states that Trump won in 2016.
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