Former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead over President Donald Trump in battleground states shrank to 2.9 points on Monday, the Real Clear Politics Polling Average shows.
PHILADELPHIA, PA – NOVEMBER 01: Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speaks at a get out the vote event at Sharon Baptist Church on November 01, 2020 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Biden is campaigning in Philadelphia on Sunday, in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania that President Donald Trump won narrowly in 2016. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
Monday’s data marks the first time Biden’s aggregate advantages in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin has dipped below 3 points in over two months. From Aug. 29—Sept. 1, Biden’s average lead in those states sat at 2.7 points, its lowest point since both the federal and state governments instituted coronavirus pandemic mitigation procedures. (RELATED: Joe Biden’s 2020 Victory Odds Have Never Been Higher)
The upper bounds of RCP’s average is set by Biden’s average leads of 5.1, 4.3, and 6.6 in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, respectively. Trump trails Biden by 1 point in both Arizona and Florida and has squeaked out to a 0.6 point lead in North Carolina.
US President Donald Trump departs following a rally at Tucson International Airport in Tucson, Arizona on October 19, 2020. – US President Donald Trump went after top government scientist Anthony Fauci in a call with campaign staffers on October 19, 2020, suggesting the hugely respected and popular doctor was an “idiot.” (Photo by MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images)
Trump would likely need to win Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania to secure reelection and has spent the past several weeks campaigning heavily in all the aforementioned battleground states.
Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight currently gives Biden a 90 percent chance of electoral college victory, up 1 point from his previous high of 89 set on Friday.