Democrats are unsure whether former President Donald Trump’s absence is benefitting or hurting their party, The Hill reported Friday.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) said Trump increased Republican voter turnout in the previous election which caused Democrats to lose 11 seats in the House and win the Senate by an extraordinarily slim margin, The Hill reported. Democratic New York Rep. Sean Maloney, chairman of the DCCC, said Trump’s absence could benefit them in upcoming elections.
“In 2022, when Trump’s name is not on the ballot, there’s no evidence that Republicans’ current message, which is divisive and reckless, will be able to recreate the turnout Republicans saw in 2020, and it might in fact hurt them,” Maloney said in a statement.
A Democratic pollster, Mark Mellman, credited the former president for increasing voter turnout on both sides. (RELATED: REPORT: Trump Planning To Open PAC To Maintain Influence In GOP)
“ was an election of vital importance for the people who hated Trump and for the people who loved Trump,” Mellman said, according to The Hill. “He brought out people on both sides.”
Polling was largely inaccurate in the 2020 where election results saw a surge in Republican turnout. Maloney argued that Trump voters do not often respond to polls.
“That creates what we call a systemic nonresponse bias. That’s a fancy way of saying the real Trump supporters don’t like talking to pollsters,” he told The Washington Post.
Democratic strategist Keir Murray of Texas said that Trump’s presence caused many, including anti-Trump Republicans, to vote for Democrats, according to The Hill. Murray added that the depiction of Democrats as being socialists and pushing to defund police has hurt the party in his state.
“The ‘socialism’ argument, the ‘defund the police’ argument-both of those did considerable damage to Democratic candidates in Texas, not just Biden but down the ticket as well,” Murray said. “I think it is an attack that can be refuted but that is going to require an acknowledgement of the severity of the attack in order to counteract it.”
While Democrats are unsure of whether Trump will have a beneficial or detrimental impact for them in the election process, many Republicans are confident that the former president will benefit them.
“Even people within the Republican establishment who may not love Trump want him on the battlefield. They know he is a net positive. They know he does appeal to atypical Republican voters, especially from a working-class background,” the unnamed GOP operative said, according to The Hill.
Trump continues to remain a significant figure in the GOP, Sen. Lindsey Graham referred to him as the “most popular Republican in America” on May 11 while appearing on Fox News.