Democrats are slightly favored to hold the Senate in 2022, according to polling from Five Thirty Eight updated Wednesday.
Democrats currently hold the Senate by a narrow margin. Each party holds 50 Senate seats, but Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris serves as the tie-breaking vote.
A sample of 100 outcomes predicted by FiveThirtyEight has Republicans winning 43 seats and Democrats winning 57.
“The Senate race is close, and in a few key races, Republicans have selected weak candidates, hurting their chances of taking the chambers in November,” Five Thirty Eight editor-in-chief Nate Silver wrote of the results. (RELATED: ‘F*ck You, We Did A Good Job’: Nate Silver Defends FiveThirtyEight’s Election Predictions)
For the first time this cycle, @FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model has Democrats as the favorite to hold the Senate majority. pic.twitter.com/DUjjs5uE4M
— COURIER (@CourierNewsroom) July 27, 2022
Trump-endorsed candidate Blake Masters won his primary in Arizona on Tuesday, as well as Attorney General Eric Schmitt in Missouri. Former NFL star Herschel Walker won his primary in Georgia’s Senate race in May.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics still projected Republicans to win a majority in the House in July despite the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Politico projected Republicans to win both chambers of Congress, according to April polling.
Most Americans want Republicans to take control of both the House and the Senate, Politico reported in November.