Ohio Senate Poll Deals Blow To Dems’ Senate Ambitions

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Republican J.D. Vance’s lead over Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan grew up to 4 points in Ohio’s Senate race 53 days out from Election Day, according to a new survey from Emerson College Polling and The Hill released Friday, in a bad sign for Democrats’ hopes of taking the Senate.

Vance held a 44% to 40% lead in polling conducted by Emerson College and The Hill in Ohio’s race for U.S. Senate. He previously led Ryan by three points, 45% to 42%, according to Emerson College’s polling in August.

Vance is now leading Ryan by 2.3 points in average polling conducted by RealClearPolitics.

“JD was born and raised in Ohio – he knows Ohioans are smarter than Tim Ryan thinks they are- he knows they won’t fall for Ryan’s despicable lies and will reject him come November,” Luke Schroeder, spokesman for the Vance campaign said in an interview with the Daily Caller News Foundation.

Given that Ohio leans red, Republican candidates were always expected to have a slight advantage, according to The Hill. The Cook Political Report rates the senatorial race as “lean Republican.”

“Independent voters favor J.D. Vance by a two-point margin, 51% of which name the economy as their most important issue,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said in the report. “Additionally, a stark gender divide exists on the Senate ballot, reflective of other Senate polling this cycle. Men break for Vance by 19 points, whereas women break for Ryan by eight points.”

“Tim Ryan pretends to be a moderate in his slick TV ads, but behind closed doors, he admits he’s a progressive. He claims to be an independent voice, but in DC, he votes with Biden and Pelosi 100% of the time. He’s on video calling to ban gas cars, but then denies it when he’s called out. He even flip-flopped his position on Biden running for reelection three times in a single day,” Schroeder told the DCNF.

Ryan and his Democratic allies still say they have a chance at flipping the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Rob Portman, The Hill reported. Meanwhile, Ryan is publicly expressing concerns on Twitter over the lack of donations toward his campaign.

Republicans hold an even greater lead in Ohio’s gubernatorial election, with incumbent Republican Gov. Mike DeWine ranking higher than Democratic challenger Nan Whaley 50% to 33%, according to Emerson College.

In hypothetical 2024 race, former President Trump leads President Joe Biden in Ohio 50% to 40%. When asked how the events of January 6 affected their view of Trump, 35% of respondents said it made them more likely to support Trump in 2024, while 34% said it made them less likely.

Trump won Ohio in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

Emerson College and The Hill surveyed 1,000 very likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.

Ryan’s campaign did not immediately respond to the DCNF’s request for comment.

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