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Democrats Could Face An Army Of ‘Submerged Voters’ In The Midterms, Pollster Says

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Mary Rooke Staff Writer
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Democrats will likely experience more political opposition at the ballot box than expected, thanks to an army of voters that won’t be easy to track.

President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party’s recent attacks against Conservatives are motivating a large coalition of hard-to-poll Americans to vote for the Republican Party in the midterms, according to Robert C. Cahaly, the chief pollster at the Trafalgar Group.

“If the election were tomorrow, Republicans should feel extremely optimistic,” Cahaly told the Daily Caller. “How should they feel in six weeks? There is a lot that can happen in that much time. But for right now, they should feel extremely optimistic.”

Cahaly labeled this new group of voters “submerged voters” in a Twitter thread posted Saturday. These voters will be even harder to poll than in previous elections when left-wing attacks caused supporters of former President Donald Trump to avoid political surveys but not the ballot box, Cahaly tweeted. (RELATED: White House: You’re ‘Extreme’ If You Don’t Agree With ‘Majority Of Americans’)

When former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called 2016 supporters of former President Donald Trump “‘Deplorables’ and other unflattering names,” those supporters became hesitant to talk about politics publically. They were called the ‘”shy Trump voter,” he said.

Cahaly told the Daily Caller that pollsters were forced to change their method of questioning to better pick up these “shy” voters in 2018 after missing them in 2016 caused the public to lose confidence in political polling. However, when the attacks served as modes to cancel or doxx everyone who contradicted the current progressive view, these once “shy” voters became the millions of “hidden voters” that once again surprised pollsters in 2020, he tweeted.

Biden’s recent speech, where he demonized Trump supporters in front of a red-stained White House, flanked by two active duty U.S. Marines in uniform, and the aggressive actions by the U.S. Justice Department against “MAGA Republicans” will push these “submerged voters” voters deeper underground, Cahaly said. “They aren’t putting stickers on their cars, signs in their yards, posting their opinions, or even answering polls,” he tweeted.

“At this point, I think it’s fair to say that Biden’s pursuit of and attacks on ‘MAGA Republicans’ has created an army of voters who will be virtually impossible to poll (even for us) and more difficult still to estimate,” Cahaly tweeted. “The 2022 Republican turnout will likely be higher than any of the polls or models are showing. All polls (including ours) will understate the impact of these ‘submerged voters.'”

“I think that effect will be even more amplified with Biden labeling certain voters as people who are threats to the country. With the labeling that he has provided, a lot of voters are very, very nervous,” he told the Daily Caller. (RELATED: Biden Attacks ‘MAGA Republicans’ In Angry Speech, Labels Them ‘Threat’ To Democracy)

Biden’s remarks during his White House speech were a political loss for the Democrats, according to a Trafalgar Group poll conducted in concert with the Convention of States Action from Sept. 2-5.

Almost 57% of likely voters told Trafalgar that Biden’s speech represented “a dangerous escalation in rhetoric and [was] designed to incite conflict amongst Americans.” Comparatively, only 35.5% said it was “acceptable campaign messaging that is to be expected in an election year,” the survey reported.

The public’s opinion on whether Biden has united or divided the country in his almost two years in office is also negative, with over 58% of Americans telling Trafalgar that Biden’s time in office divided the country, while only 20% believed he has been a unifier.

Cahaly told the Daily Caller that voter turnout will likely exceed typical midterm numbers, measuring “somewhere between 2018‘s turnout and 2020.” However, due to the attacks against Conservative voters, pollsters will have a more challenging time accurately estimating how large a voting bloc these “submerged voters” are -similar to pollsters getting caught off guard with the over 150 million votes cast in 2020.

Voter turnout during the primary election was higher among Republicans than Democrats, and “that’s a good sign” for the GOP, according to pollster John Couvillon from JMC Analytics, reported The Washington Post on Monday. Republican voters cast 52% of primary votes in 2022 compared to the 48% of voters who voted in Democratic races.

Couvillon’s voter turnout analysis shows how elections trend toward each party depending on the number of voters participating in the primary. The report indicates that the party with the higher voter turnout in the primaries fares better on election day in November.

In each midterm election from 2006 to 2018, the totals from the 35 states where primary turnout was comparable across all five midterm elections, Couvillon found that the party with a higher primary vote margin was the winning of the House margin in November every time, The Washington Post reported.

Senior data reporter from CNN Harry Enten said the 2022 midterms will likely resemble the 2010 or 2014 primary results when Republicans had a higher turnout than Democrats and won the House margin.

“While this year’s partisan makeup of primary voters is not nearly as Republican as 2010 or 2014, it still points to a midterm election in which the GOP has a slight edge nationally,” Enten wrote. “Since 2010, the partisan makeup of midterm primary voters has been 3 points more Republican than their eventual margin in the national House vote.”

Republicans’ 5-point lead heading into the midterms could see them win the House by 2-points, according to Enten.

Pollsters won’t be able to accurately predict the number of submerged Republican voters” who will vote in the midterms, according to Cahaly. “I don’t know how many there are. I just know how people react to what’s been going on and what we see,” Cahaly said. “I don’t think we can measure that number. I think we are all going to come up short.” (RELATED: ‘A Very Good Day For Donald Trump’: Alyssa Farah Griffin Says The DOJ May Have ‘Handed’ Trump 2024 After Raid)

He warned that voters who have participated in past polls or would have been likely to partake are declining to participate in their new surveys after Biden gave his infamous speech. “People are so scared to give their opinion,” Cahaly told the Daily Caller. “They recognize our name and are reaching out to us directly on our website to see if we are the ones sending [the survey].”

Trafalgar Group has recently received several “weird” responses from people checking to make sure it was the polling firm that sent the survey. “Since that speech, we are getting weird things like people will be emailing us and calling us: ‘Hey, I got a poll it says it was y’all, but I wasn’t sure, so I didn’t do it. Was it y’all,'” he said.

This “strange phenomenon” has never happened to them in any other election, including during the height of tension in 2016 and 2020, Cahaly admitted.

The massive number of voters who can’t be accurately tracked will help Republican voter turnout in the midterms, including giving the GOP control of the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives, according to Cahaly.

If the election were held today, Cahaly said “submerged voters” would help tip the scales in several key races, including making the between Republican Ohio Senate candidate J.D. Vance and Democratic Ohio Sen. Tim Ryan “not even close” in favor of Vance.

He also expects “submerged voters” to help elect Republican candidates like Doug Mastriano, Dr. Mehmet Oz, Kari Lake, Blake Masters, Brian Kemp, and Herschel Walker in November. “I think it is very possible those are victories,” he told the Daily Caller.

“Even races that we have as extremely tight, 1 or 2 points Republican behind, I think it’s quite possible that undecideds will break their way and their voters we can’t measure will make those victories,” said Cahaly.