A Red Wave Sign That No One’s Talking About

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Mary Rooke Commentary and Analysis Writer
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Signs continue to indicate that the Republican Party is headed for substantial midterm gains when voters head to the polls on Nov. 8.

Share prices on the betting website PredictIt suggest that gamblers heavily favor the Republican Party to win control of both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate, upsetting the balance of power in Washington D.C.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) gives PredictIt permission to run bets on issues like elections as “an experimental project operated for academic purposes,” the platform’s website states. PredictIt invites users to buy “shares” in specific candidates or outcomes, with shares priced between 1 cent and 99 cents. Higher prices indicate more likely outcomes. Shares in winning candidates or outcomes pay off at $1 each.

The election markets show buyers are bullish for the GOP, with Republican shares trading at 88 cents and Democratic shares at 13 cents on the question of which party will win the House in 2022, PredictIt shows. The platform showed that the fate of the Senate is less clear but still favors the GOP, with Republican shares trading at 61 cents while the Democrat shares were at 41 cents.

Democratic strategist Jessica Tarlov told Fox News that the U.S. Supreme Court’s June decision to overturn Roe v. Wade gave Democrats a chance to change the subject from the economy, according to a Fox News article published Wednesday. (RELATED: Texas Midterm Election Betting Odds – Election Forecast for 2022)

“After the Dobbs ruling, the Kansas referendum, and several special election victories, the focus had shifted, at least somewhat, off of exclusively the economy, and that was to the Democrats’ benefit,” Tarlov said. “I never thought Democrats would hold the House but expected a slim GOP majority. Now it’s looking like it could be dozens of seats.”

“I believe there’s time to get it back under control, but messaging has to be laser-focused on the economy and crime, with little else,” Tarlov added.

Traders only backed the Democratic Party’s chances of winning both Chambers of Congress in November at 12 cents a share. Comparatively, Republican shares were trading at 62 cents, PredictIt shows.

High-risk, high-reward types also have the option to bet that Democrats will hold the House while Republicans take back the Senate. This highly unlikely outcome is valued at just 2 cents a share, meaning winners would receive $50 for every dollar they wagered.