Dems Don’t Have ‘Much Margin To Spare’ In Battle For Senate, Top Pollster Says

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Brianna Lyman News and Commentary Writer
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FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver described a tense situation for Democrats, writing that the party can’t afford to lose in several key states if they hope to hold the Senate.

Silver began by noting Republicans have a 48% chance of taking the Senate, putting the Senate “officially in toss-up territory.” Silver then wrote that, while some polls show “good news for Democrats,” Republicans have plenty of reasons for optimism.

“[T]he current picture leaves Democrats without much margin to spare. Unless they can pull off an upset in North Carolina, Ohio, or Wisconsin, Democrats will need to win two of the three closest Senate races – Georgia, Pennsylvania and Nevada – in order to maintain their majority, while also holding Arizona and New Hampshire.” (RELATED: ‘Bloodbath Ten Days From Now’: Donny Deutsch Says Things Could Be Bad For Dems)

Republicans are also heavily favored to retake the House according to recent polls, “putting Democrats in a tough – although hardly impossible – position.”

“Unlike in the Senate, Democrats will have to do more than just win the majority of toss-up races to control the House,” Silver wrote. “Even if Democrats won all the toss-ups, it wouldn’t quite be enough. To keep the House, Democrats will need for our model to be systemically underestimating them,” Silver wrote.

Nationwide, Democrats appear to be in hot water, with polls showing voters are increasingly concerned about the economy and trust Republicans over Democrats to handle the situation.

A recent Morning Consult/Politico poll found 93% of voters are concerned with inflation, with three out of four Democrats polled saying the economy would play a role in their voting decision. The same poll found 46% of voters trusted Republicans in Congress to handle inflation while only 37% trust Democrats.

A separate poll conducted by Trafalgar Group/Convention of States Action found 58.9% of respondents believe a Democrat-controlled Congress would hurt the economy compared to 41.1% who think it would improve the economy.