The University of Virginia’s Sabato Crystal Ball forecaster has changed gubernatorial races in Florida and Georgia to “Safe Republican” and “Likely Republican” respectively, one week away from the midterm elections.
The pollster previously had Georgia incumbent Governor Brian Kemp’s race against Democrat Stacey Abrams classified as “Leans Republican.” Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ race against Democrat Charlie Crist was previously rated as “Likely Republican.” (RELATED: Florida Votes To Ban Sex Change Procedures For Minors After Volatile Testimony)
According to the pollster, the questions surrounding DeSantis’ lead are “more about the size of Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R) margin and if he will run for president than whether he’ll lose to Charlie Crist (D).”
CRYSTAL BALL: Two rating changes in favor of southern R governors today. Brian Kemp seems well-positioned to win outright next week — he goes to Likely R. And in Florida, Ron DeSantis moves to Safe R.https://t.co/9MAhOcQ5ZD pic.twitter.com/3DqzsBeTwH
— J. Miles Coleman (@JMilesColeman) October 31, 2022
Kemp’s race against Abrams is still tilted in favor of the Democrat, according to other pollsters. Kemp leads Abrams by 6.8 points, according to FiveThirtyEight. DeSantis’s lead against Crist is far greater, according to FiveThirtyEight, as the Republican leads by 9.9 points.
Other governor races have also tipped farther in favor of Republicans in recent weeks. Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake leads her Democrat opponent Katie Hobbs by 11 points, according to a FOX10 InsiderAdvantage poll released Oct. 26. Republican New Mexico gubernatorial candidate Mark Ronchetti has also gained a one-point lead against her opponent, Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, in the final days of October.