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The Complete Republican Blowout Victory? How and Why it Could Happen

(Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)

Mary Rooke Commentary and Analysis Writer
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Despite Democrats’ best efforts to shift the national conversation from the failing U.S. economy to abortion access and their crusade against MAGA voters, the red wave of GOP victories nationally is undoubtedly making landfall this November.

At this point, there is so much going wrong for the Democrats – from jobs to inflation – that it is not really whether Republicans win control of the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives, it’s by how much.

Being the incumbent party, the Democrats were always expected to take losses in the midterms. As such, pundits and pollsters predicted the GOP would win control of the U.S. House after the 2022 midterms but stop short of taking power in the U.S. Senate, giving Democrats a sigh of relief that they would continue to hold power in the other Chamber.

However, Real Clear Politics (RCP) just ripped the rug out from under Democrats after switching its U.S. Senate projections to show Republicans will hold an 8-seat lead after the election. The RCP map shows Republicans should expect to win 54 seats in the U.S. Senate to the Democrats 46. (RELATED: Chickens Come Home To Roost For Dems After 18 Months Of American Pain)

Although RCP changed Republican Herschel Walker’s +0.9 lead over incumbent Democratic Georgia Sen. Rachael Warnock to reflect that voters should anticipate another Georgia runoff, three of the four Democrats’ open seats switched to GOP pickups. Democratic Senate candidates, including New Hampshire’s Maggie Hassan, Nevada’s Catherine Cortez Masto, and Arizona’s Mark Kelly, are now predicted to lose to Republicans in the midterms, according to RCP.

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Gary Peters spoke confidently to Politico about the Democrats’ midterm chances despite Republicans’ obvious momentum. “All of our races are in battleground states, and by definition, a battleground state is a very close election that comes down to the wire,” Peters said. “I feel very good about where we are. We have a very clear contrast in every single one of these races between our Democratic incumbents and the Republicans they are running against.”

But Republican Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst also told Politico that she sees her party being victorious in the midterms. “Chances at this moment are very, very strong,” Ernst said. “I’m just going to say: We’re going to get the Senate next Tuesday.”

There is good reason for Ernst to be excited. The Democratic party has been bleeding support from their typical voter base, especially Hispanics. These voters make up one of the fastest-growing voting blocs within the GOP after turning against the Democratic party’s far-left economic and social policies.

Earl and Mary Rose Wilcox, Hispanic Democrat activists and owners of El Portal in Phoenix, AZ, told the Atlantic that their heavily Hispanic clientele have nothing but frustration for the Democratic party and President Joe Biden.

“The party doesn’t care about us,” Mary Rose, former city councilwoman and member of the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, said. “They pretend to care every two years.”

“Our community, we may not be educated at the highest levels, but we have a lot of street smarts. We know when people are bullshitting us,” Earl told the Atlantic. “You know what they say to Democrats now? ‘Es, pura cábula.’ Bunch of bullshit.” (RELATED: The GOP Got Handed A Silver Platter Win. Are They Smart Enough To Take It?)

Pew Research analyzed Hispanic voter data from 2000-2022, finding there to be an estimated 34.5 million eligible Hispanic voters, which is predicted to account for 14.3% of the voter pool in November. Hispanics also represent 62% of the total increase in U.S. eligible voters since 2018 after adding 4.7 million voters to their ranks during this time, Pew reported.

Democrats should also be worried about the lack of voter enthusiasm among young Americans, Easten Young, a senior political science and history student at Columbia University, told the Washington Post.

“I’m not feeling too confident, honestly,” Young said. “I really hope that people like myself will get out and vote, especially young people, because it’s so important. But I think that it’s not looking too good.”

Young voters aged 18-29 have been essential in electing Democrats nationwide for several election cycles, including giving Biden a 24-point margin over former President Donald Trump in 2020. But the support for Democrats among young voters seems to be waning, according to the latest polling from Teen Vogue and Change Research. (RELATED: Red Wave On The Horizon As Republicans Gain Unprecedented Support From Black Voters)

The poll found that 59% of registered voters under the age of 35 disapprove of Biden’s performance as president, 66% disapprove of the Democratic-controlled U.S. House of Representatives, and 74% disapprove of the Democratic-controlled U.S. Senate.

To combat the potential losses, Democrats, like former President Barrack Obama, Vice President Kamala Harris and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, assembled across the country in the week leading up to the Nov. 8 election to bolster candidates in tight races.

Gamblers are bullish for the Republican Party to win control of both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate, according to the share prices on the betting website, PredictIt. Republican shares predicting the GOP will take back the House and the Senate are trading at 75 cents, while Democrats’ shares for the same power are only trading at 11 cents as of this writing.