CNN’s Senior Political Analyst John Avalon said Monday that Democrats are “on the defense” in New York State as polls tighten between Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul and Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin.
“Let’s get real about the dynamics behind these midterms,” Avalon said. “There’s a physics behind the pendulum in midterm elections. This stat captures it. When presidents are below 50% in their midterm election, they tend to lose an average of 46 seats since 1982. Reagan, Clinton, Obama, Trump, Biden in that category. Unclear how many. That’s a benchmark to keep in mind.”
“You saw Joe Biden campaigning in New York State. That’s a sign of Democrats on defense, let’s be real about that,” Avalon continued.
“In New York State,” Lemon said. (RELATED: ‘You Can’t Deny That’: Don Lemon Confronts Gov. Hochul On Surging Crime In New York City)
“In New York State,” Avalon said. “In Oregon, Republicans are trying to get a pickup. Who thought that was possible?”
Biden spoke Sunday in Yonkers to try and boost turnout, arguing Zeldin “talks a good game on crime, but it’s all talk.”
But a recently released Trafalgar Group poll showed Zeldin was narrowly leading Hochul 48.4% to 47.6%. RealClearPolitics is listing the race as a toss up, but projecting Hochul will hold the seat.
The race between Zeldin and Hochul has primarily focused on crime and the economy. New York City in particular has faced a drastic increase in crime over the past year. Data from the New York Police Department showed a 32% increase in robberies, a 38.5% increase in grand larcenies and a 13.9% increase in felony assaults.
The Democratic Governor’s Association set up a last-minute super PAC for Hochul to help boost her chances as well.