Goldman Sachs economists are projecting slower economic growth for 104 countries over the next half century, Bloomberg reported Tuesday.
They project global growth to average less than 3% per year over the next decade, compared to 3.6% in the decade before the 2008 financial crisis. Afterwards, growth will be on a gradual decline because of slower labor force growth, Goldman projects, according to Bloomberg.
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The U.S. is unlikely to repeat its economic performance over the last decade as the dollar’s strength declines over the next decade, Goldman economists noted. China, the U.S., India, Indonesia and Germany project to be the world’s largest economies measured by dollars, with income inequality between countries declining, Bloomberg added.
Factors cited by the Goldman economists for their projections include economic protectionism, climate change and slower population growth. The economists believe their projections “imply that we have passed the high-water mark of global potential growth,” adding that most of the global slowdown is due to demographic change. (RELATED: World Population Reaches 8 Billion People)
Slower population growth creates less strain on the environment, but raises new challenges regarding rising healthcare costs of aging populations, Bloomberg noted.
Global population growth is at its lowest level since 1950, according to United Nations data. Two-thirds of the global population lives in places where lifetime fertility is at or below 2.1 per woman, the replacement level rate, UN data shows. Populations in 61 countries are projected to decrease primarily because of sustained lower levels of fertility, UN data projects.
Goldman Sachs economists are predicting 1.8% global GDP growth in the next year, as US economic resilience contrasts an European recession and an unpredictable reopening of China’s economy, a report shows.