All eyes are focused on Milwaukee, where a handful of GOP presidential wannabes take the stage Wednesday for what’s billed as the first debate of the 2024 election.
Looming large over the gathering will be former President Donald J. Trump, whom most polls have running well ahead of the other Republicans vying to take Joe Biden on in November of next year.
He’s not allowed to join in the debate officially because he won’t sign the RNC’s “Beat Biden” pledge as the Republican National Committee has required everyone participating to do. Unofficially, he’s so far ahead in the polls it’s not worth his time.
He’s the frontrunner, like it or not. That makes the contest for the GOP nomination a referendum on what he did in office and what he’s done since leaving it for as long as he remains in the race. (RELATED: JOSH HAMMER: The 2024 Republican Primary Battle Is Far From Over)
Sure, one of the other candidates chasing the nomination could catch fire. Someone could say something that catches the ear of the Republican primary electorate. That’s unlikely, though. Most of them won’t be watching due to Trump not being there.
It’s far more likely that one or more of the runners who’ve made it this far will stumble, thereby taking themselves out of the race. Tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who’s been saying many things lately that make a lot of sense, could end up burying himself by repeating one of the few things he’s recently said that doesn’t.
It might not be Ramaswamy who stumbles. It might be former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations and South Carolina Gov. Nicki Haley who proves she’s not ready for prime time. Or former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who seems to want to destroy Trump more than he wants to become the GOP nominee. Anyone who gets on the stage Wednesday without Trump being present risks doing themselves more harm than good.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, in particular, has the most to lose. In the shorthand of the politicos who decide such things, he was Trump without all the baggage. That made him look like a winner, especially against Biden.
No one is sure why, but the bloom now seems to be falling off the rose. The excitement that was once there about his candidacy has dissipated to the point where it’s almost reached disinterest. A poor performance by him at the debate is likely the beginning of the end — if he hasn’t reached that point already.
All this is true, except for one thing. Like a tree falling in the forest when no one is around, does a debate no one watches (comparatively speaking) because Trump’s not in it impact how people will vote in the upcoming GOP primaries and caucuses? (RELATED: DANIEL TURNER: Here Are Some Serious Energy Policy Questions For 2024’s GOP Candidates)
Moreover, how can you have a genuine debate about the policies that will shape the country if the frontrunner doesn’t play? Trump should defend some of the positions he took as president. Why, for example, wasn’t he tougher on spending? How would he address the national debt in his second term? A $30 trillion tab, even if we owe it to ourselves mostly, is a pretty big marker. What’s his plan for dealing with it and its impact on the economy?
The other candidates in Milwaukee likely have a line or two about that, maybe more. It would be nice to hear them compared to what the former president says. That won’t happen on Wednesday. It might not happen at all, which makes it hard for the voters to make an informed choice.
A former UPI senior political writer and U.S. News and World Report columnist, Peter Roff is a senior fellow at several public policy organizations including the Trans-Atlantic Leadership Network. Contact him at RoffColumns AT gmail.com. Follow him on Twitter and TruthSocial @TheRoffDraft.
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