The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a forecast late Thursday regarding a system with the potential to form into a tropical development over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida by Saturday.
The system is currently sitting over Haiti and the Dominican Republic and is expected to move southwest as Friday moves into the weekend, according to NHC data. There’s a chance the system could form into a larger storm throughout Friday as it heads toward the U.S. Either way, Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas are on alert for heavy rains with the potential for flash flooding through the weekend.
8 pm EDT Aug 1: A tropical depression is likely to form over the Straits of Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico near Florida this weekend. Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause flash flooding across portions of Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas through the weekend.… pic.twitter.com/ixODVpCSjj
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 1, 2024
A broader radar forecast shared by Zoom Earth showed the system’s potential for moving up the western coast of Florida through August 3 before making its way back to the Atlantic by August 5. In this scenario, the storm would regain strength over the Atlantic near Jacksonville and Charleston as it hovers off the coast between the two cities. (RELATED: Footage Captures Supercell Striking Omaha, Leaving More Than 213,000 Without Power)
There’s also a risk the system turns into a larger tropical storm or even a hurricane, doubling back across the Florida peninsula through Tallahassee and back into the Gulf. This is arguably the worst-case scenario as the storm would repeatedly hit the same region over the course of a week. As storm chaser Reed Timmer put it, mildly, “this scenario would be a hydrological problem for the Southeast.”
This scenario would be a hydrological problem for the Southeast https://t.co/pb7ufWDizC
— Reed Timmer, PhD (@ReedTimmerUSA) August 2, 2024
Environmental conditions are expected to further develop the storm after Saturday night, NHC said in the broader forecast. Storm watches could be issued in Florida as early as Friday afternoon.
As always, please check your local forecasts and make plans and arrangements accordingly.