One of The Daily Caller’s ace reporters, Chris Moody, wrote this on Monday in his preview of the midterm elections: “At this point, no honest political observer can say they know for certain that victory is in the bag for either party.”
Moody’s right. No one can know for sure which way the House and Senate will go. Seasoned political prognosticators – the Charlie Cooks, Stu Rothenbergs, and Larry Sabatos of the world – like to be measured in their approach. They don’t like to predict the House or Senate will flip only to be proven wrong.
But I have no reason to be so cautious. I’ll leave House races to others, but as for the Senate, my bet is that the Republicans will be in charge when the new Congress meets in January. And sooner or later, the cautious expert prognosticators will get here as well.
After Christine O’Donnell won the GOP primary last month over liberal Republican Rep. Mike Castle in a shocking victory, much of the political establishment said that Republicans virtually had little chance now to take back the Senate.
That is a reasonable assessment – for the 2006 midterm elections. But 2010 is turning out to be the year of the Tea Party. Tea Party activists are the most excited, energized group out there and they will turn out to the polls in high numbers.
They want to party like it’s 1994 so they can have candidates who will govern like it’s 1776. And it looks like they will at least get the party part. We’ll see if the candidates they elect dance to their tune once in office.
But if the right is electrified to get to the polls, the left is decidedly not.
While conservatives see President Obama as a European Social Democrat (or worse), many liberals perceive him as a president who hasn’t come through on much of what he promised. They have become disenchanted with what they perceive as the president’s failure to push hard for things they care for, like the public option in the health care bill, and his decision to expand the war in Afghanistan despite the left’s demands for withdrawal. They are also dismayed at his failure to come through on any number of issues demanded by various liberal interest groups (like eliminating ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’, immigration reform, closing of Gitmo, etc.).
The point is, while liberals obviously like President Obama and any Democrat more than Republican Tea Partiers, they are not energized like they were in 2008 when they projected all their hopes and wants onto the nearly blank canvas that was candidate Obama. They are now disillusioned and a disillusioned left doesn’t bode well for Democrats in the midterm elections.
I don’t know election politics nearly as well as Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenberg, or Larry Sabato. But I’ve seen enough this election cycle to not discount the impossible – see Christine O’Donnell, Joe Miller, etc. And considering that the Senate is in reach, if this year the impossible is possible, isn’t the unlikely likely?
Republicans need to steal 10 seats in November to take control of the Senate and there are 13 seats in play for Republicans. So let’s do the election math.
NEXT: The aforementioned election math
As TheDC’s Jon Ward reported Monday, Republicans are all but a lock to take three seats (Arkansas, Indiana, and North Dakota). Six seats currently held by Democrats are basically toss-ups (Colorado, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, and West Virginia), though in most of those races the Republican candidate maintains at least a slight lead in the polls. In what will likely be a very Republican year, you have to suspect that the Republicans will pick up each of these seats barring some last minute scandal by one of their candidates. At least, I am suspecting that.
That’s 9 right there.
Of the four other seats that Republicans have a shot at (California, Connecticut, Delaware, and Washington), the GOP only needs to pick up one. I bet the GOP will take Washington where the Republican candidate is currently leading in the polls, but I have a funny feeling about Connecticut as well. McMahon is down, but she is not yet out for the count.
In 2006, many analysts were weary of predicting a Democratic takeover of the Senate. After all, the Dems needed pretty much every seat in play to fall for them to take control of the body. And fall to them every one of them did.
2010 will undoubtedly be a Republican year. The wave will likely be big enough to take the Senate back for Republicans. But the GOP should be careful what they wish for. In taking control of Congress, the GOP could very well save the Obama presidency and, in so doing, secure him a second term.