TheDC Fantasy Outsider Andy Hayes: Week 16

Andy Hayes Contributor
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  1. Michael Vick
  2. Peyton Manning
  3. Drew Brees
  4. Phillip Rivers
  5. Tim Tebow
  6. Tom Brady
  7. Ryan Fitzpatrick
  8. Aaron Rodgers
  9. Matt Schaub
  10. Joe Flacco
  11. Shaun Hill
  12. David Garrard
  13. Josh Freeman
  14. Matt Ryan
  15. Matt Cassel
  16. Jon Kitna
  17. Colt McCoy
  18. Kerry Collins
  19. Eli Manning
  20. Chad Henne


  • VIck should be awesome again.
  • My guess is that Peyton Manning will have some catching up to do in this one. I see Indy having considerable difficulty with Oak – in fact, I see an Oak win here.
  • Brees will likely be active. Can’t imagine the Saints’ run game will do much – the offense will rely heavily on Brees.
  • Rivers should be good. Chances are good that Cincy does a decent job of shutting down the SD run game only to give up huge chunks to Rivers through the air.
  • Tebow this high is risky of course. But Houston has a dreadful defense and Tebow has the ability to score TDs himself running, which, like Vick, boosts his value significantly for fantasy football.
  • I can see Brady and Fitzpatrick both having quality passing games.
  • Shaun Hill might be a good start. Miami’s run defense has been really good this year and it will likely be up to Shaun Hill to keep the offense moving.
  • I like Colt McCoy this week. The Ravens will key on stopping Peyton Hillis but McCoy is good enough already to take advantage of defenses with such an imbalanced focus.
  • Thought about putting Cutler in here as he looked really good last week – but I don’t see him duplicating that effort this week against the Jets (even though the Jets aren’t what they used to be without Jim Leonhard).

Running Backs

  1. Chris Johnson
  2. Jamaal Charles
  3. LeSean McCoy
  4. Darren McFadden
  5. Ray Rice
  6. Maurice Jones-Drew (assuming he plays)
  7. LeGarrette Blount
  8. Arian Foster
  9. Knowshon Moreno
  10. Michael Turner
  11. Fred Jackson
  12. Peyton Hillis
  13. Adrian Peterson
  14. Tim Hightower
  15. Steven Jackson
  16. Tashard Choice
  17. Marshawn Lynch
  18. Matt Forte
  19. Ryan Torain
  20. Brian Westbrook
  21. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
  22. Donald Brown
  23. Pierre Thomas
  24. Danny Woodhead
  25. Maurice Morris
  26. Reggie Bush
  27. Thomas Jones
  28. LT
  29. Cedric Benson
  30. Brandon Jacobs


  • Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles may both tally some serious stats this week. While the KC D isn’t bad against the run and the Tenn D has shown some flashes (like last week against Houston) – I think both of these guys will have big games Sunday.
  • LeSean McCoy should have his way with a seriously declining MN defense. They couldn’t stop Cutler or Forte last week and defending Vick is a lot more difficult proposition for an entire defense than defending Jay Cutler – which should open things up for McCoy.
  • I expect McFadden to run wild despite Indy’s run D being decent last week against MJD. The nice thing for fantasy owners about McFadden is that he can do nothing for 3 quarters and then break off a 90 yard TD run. He’s a solid play.
  • I’m not sure Ray Rice will accomplish anything close to what he did last week, but he should be a solid play (especially in PPR leagues) because he’ll get his yards and maybe a TD as well.
  • I liked LeGarrette Blount last week and I like him again this week. Seattle is bad and though they’ve definitely got something to play for, I don’t like their chances defensively in this one.
  • One guy I thought about elevating to the top 5 was Fred Jackson. When a team (the Pats) gives up huge running yards to a RB like Brandon Jackson (the Packers), you know the run D is questionable. I think it’s entirely possible that the improving Bills’ offense really does some damage against the Pats this week – Fred Jackson in particular.
  • I expect Hightower, Choice, Lynch and Pierre Thomas to be active in their games.
  • It’s difficult to put Maurice Morris so far down in the rankings after what he’s done lately but the Miami D is really good against the run.

Wide Receivers

  1. Brandon Lloyd
  2. Pierre Garcon
  3. Miles Austin
  4. Roddy White
  5. Greg Jennings
  6. DeSean Jackson
  7. Vincent Jackson
  8. Calvin Johnson
  9. Marques Colston
  10. Kenny Britt
  11. Dwayne Bowe
  12. Mike Williams (TB)
  13. Wes Welker
  14. Jeremy Maclin
  15. Larry Fitzgerald
  16. Reggie Wayne
  17. Brandon Marshall
  18. Santana Moss
  19. Mike Williams (Sea)
  20. Hakeem Nicks
  21. Steve Johnson
  22. Mario Manningham
  23. Percy Harvin
  24. Michael Crabtree
  25. Braylon Edwards
  26. Derrick Mason
  27. Deion Branch
  28. Jacoby Ford
  29. Lance Moore
  30. Nate Burleson


  • Not a great week for WRs overall – lots of seemingly tough match-ups for the top WRs.
  • I think Lloyd and the Denver offense go crazy on Houston. Houston’s offense may also go crazy on Denver.
  • I like Garcon here. I see this being a good game with a fair number of points scored. With Asomugha likely watching Reggie Wayne, Manning will likely look in Garcon’s direction a lot.
  • I know Austin has been iffy of late, but this game should be a shootout in AZ and AZ’s pass defense is not good. I also expect a AZ to make this a game keeping Kitna and the offense engaged throughout.
  • Vincent Jackson was awesome last week but I don’t expect the same level of domination this week. Truth is Cincy’s defense has played terribly this year but they don’t necessarily have terrible personnel. The secondary has been suspect all year but there are some good CBs on Cincy who could make things rather difficult for Jackson.
  • One question on the minds of lots of fantasy folks this weekend is what will Dwayne Bowe do? I’ve been struggling with this all week myself. A hunch tells me Bowe will get back into the action this week. He’ll draw Cortland Finnegan who, when he’s not being an idiot can actually cover decently. But he’s not a shutdown corner and I can see Cassel looking for Bowe a bit more this week. Besides, Tenn will be loading the box to stop the potent KC rushing attack. Bowe might burn you again, but I’d say there is a better chance that he comes through this week.
  • I like both Mike Williams this week.
  • Jacoby Ford is a guy you might consider picking up now if you’re in a keeper league. The guy is really fun to watch and loaded with moves we just don’t see that often anymore.

Tight Ends

  1. Jason Witten
  2. Marcedes Lewis
  3. Chris Cooley
  4. Vernon Davis
  5. Jacob Tamme
  6. Owen Daniels
  7. Tony Gonzalez
  8. Zach Miller
  9. Rob Gronkowski
  10. Jimmy Graham
  11. Kellen Winslow
  12. Benjamin Watson
  13. Aaron Hernandez
  14. Brandon Pettigrew
  15. Anthony Fasano


  • It’s a pretty helpless feeling playing against a guy in the playoffs who has Jason Witten these days. Kitna looks for Witten before any other guy and ends up even forcing a fair number of passes to him. He should do just fine against AZ.
  • Marcedes Lewis is a TD machine. Should have another this week.
  • Vernon Davis has been frustrating for fantasy owners of late. He’s either awesome or nonexistent. I’m guessing the SF coaching staff got an earful from Davis after he was targeted once last week (though SD did a special kind of bracket coverage to shut him out – obviously very effective).
  • Tamme should be busy as well as Zach Miller (especially if Indy has any success slowing down Oak’s rushing attack).
  • Kellen Winslow is a guy who could very well have much better stats than an 11 ranking would indicate.


  1. David Akers
  2. David Buehler
  3. Jay Feely
  4. Sebastian Janikowski
  5. Matt Bryant
  6. Dan Carpenter
  7. Nate Kaeding
  8. Josh Brown
  9. Josh Scobee
  10. Shayne Graham
  11. Ryan Succop
  12. Rian Lindell
  13. Billy Cundiff
  14. Connor Barth
  15. Mason Crosby
  16. Lawrence Tynes


  • It’s also a helpless feeling when opposing a guy who has David Akers. He has been on fire kicking this year.
  • Buehler has been really hot as well lately and he should be busy vs a weak AZ defense.
  • I like Jay Feely as well as I expect AZ to put up more of a fight in this game than they did last week against a miserable Carolina team.
  • Josh Brown could either have a number of FGs or nothing. I have him on my team and he’s a difficult guy to consider. SF has a decent defense and may slow Steven Jackson just enough to keep StL out of the end zone – opening up kicking attempts for Brown. Or, StL could really sputter and this game could end up being a defensive battle. One plus for Brown is that weather will not be a factor (indoors).
  • NE should be busy scoring, but I think Buff will be too. Graham and Lindell are both decent options – UNLESS THE WEATHER TURNS REALLY UGLY.

Defense/Special Teams

  1. Bears
  2. Eagles
  3. Buccaneers
  4. Packers
  5. Chargers
  6. KC
  7. Ravens
  8. Browns
  9. Jets
  10. Dolphins
  11. SF
  12. Rams
  13. Lions
  14. NYG
  15. Patriots
  16. Jax
  17. Oak


  • The Jets could have considerable difficult doing anything offensively in Chicago. A cold weather game featuring a defense that knows it can focus on stopping the run – whether or not Sanchez plays. I think the Jets may find going through the air might be the smarter philosophy Sunday.
  • The Eagles should totally smother the Vikes. Yes, there is some risk if A Peterson plays and plays well of course. But he’s iffy and the Eagles should jump out to a quick lead forcing the Vikes to resort to passing a bunch.
  • The Bucs should play a quality game this weekend and score some DST points.
  • While the Giants D has been very good overall this year, I think they’ll struggle with a balanced attack from the Packers in this one. I think it will be the Packers’ defense that will surprise in this one. Untimely Giants turnovers. (Is there such a thing as a timely turnover?)
  • The Ravens/Browns game should be a nasty defensive affair – keep in mind the Browns rank #5 in the NFL in picks and that they have managed to limit opposing offenses quite effectively in the last few games.
  • I would rank the Pats higher because they are the superior team, but I can see Buff making this a good game (I actually picked them to shock here). And, if they don’t win, I can see them accumulating a bunch of garbage time yards.
  • Both Oak and Jax could have decent DST fantasy games this week. Indy’s pass attack of course will hurt DST points, but I’m guessing they’ll slow down Donald Brown and force a few Manning errors.