Rick Perry would be tough competition if he were to enter the presidential race, knocking Michele Bachmann out of second place and giving frontrunner Mitt Romney a serious challenge, according to a Gallup poll released Wednesday.
On a ballot that includes Perry, Rudy Giuliani, and Sarah Palin — all of whom have taken steps toward running but have not yet officially announced their decisions — Romney leads with 17 percent of the vote, followed closely by Perry with 15 percent. Palin takes 12 percent, followed by Giuliani and Bachmann who tie with 11 percent.
The amount of support for unannounced candidates like Perry and Giuliani suggests that the field is not entirely settled, and there is potential for a newcomer to reshape the field.
In a field limited to the candidates who have already announced, Romney has a solid lead of 27 percent; and Bachmann is a distant second with 18 percent.
Of the three undecided candidates included, Perry appears to be the greatest threat. If he is the only one of the three to announce, he comes in second with 18 percent to Romney’s 23 percent. In that scenario, Bachmann’s share of the vote drops to 13 percent. Neither Palin nor Giuliani edges out Bachmann if they are the only one to enter the race.
Among the field of candidates who have announced, Romney’s share of the vote has remained unchanged since the last Gallup tracking poll in June. Bachmann’s share, on the other hand, has more than doubled, rising from 7 percent in June to 18 percent now.
Herman Cain has seen something of a fall from grace: After attracting 10 percent of the vote in June polling, he is now at just 5 percent, lower than in May. Nonetheless, Cain continues to boast the highest positive intensity of the field, followed by Perry.
Tim Pawlenty and Newt Gingrich have also continued their gradual decline since May.
The Gallup poll numbers are based on telephone interviews conducted with 1,088 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents over the period of July 20 to July 24. The margin of error is plus or minus four percentage points.