Few were surprised to see Mitt Romney run away with the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday night. He claimed the “native son” mantle in the Granite State from the outset, and his fundraising, organization and history in the state made his first-place finish a near certainty. That said, he outperformed expectations, earning 39% of the vote and outpacing his closest opponent, Ron Paul, by more than 16 points.
Coming off of a victory in Iowa that was, for all intents and purposes, a tie with Rick Santorum, Romney walked into New Hampshire as the front-runner, albeit a battered one. Gingrich returned the barbs he received in Iowa, peppering Romney with attacks on his business record, a mantra that was also taken up by Rick Perry. Yet not only did Romney receive 39% of the vote, besting his vote share from 2008, he performed remarkably well among all counties and among all voter demographics — he won men, women, everyone over 30, registered Republicans and those who were undeclared, to name a few. Romney emerged from New Hampshire as the man to beat.
Since 1972, no Republican presidential candidate has won the nomination without winning either Iowa or New Hampshire — and here Romney has gone and won both, a feat that has never happened without a Republican incumbent president on the ballot. In a year marked by pundits screaming that Republicans are divided and that this is the weakest field in recent history, Mitt Romney — a man who was on the cover of Time magazine just a few weeks ago with the tagline “Why don’t they like me?” — managed to make history. The question is, how?
Romney is, first and foremost, a businessman. Article after article has been written about how his tenure at Harvard Business School has molded him, and that discipline and cool objectivity have been the hallmarks of his campaign. In his book “Great by Choice,” management guru Jim Collins outlines the 20-Mile March concept. In essence, the 20-Mile March is about consistent, measurable progress. Collins uses the example of a man marching from San Diego to Maine. His goal is to gain a consistent 20 miles per day, no matter the adversity. Snowstorm or 60 degrees and sunny, good health or blisters, every day, he gets up, gets dressed and gets going. He doesn’t shut down when times are tough and he doesn’t overexert when times are good. He sustains his pace. Put another way, the person who is a steady contact hitter and consistently hits singles and doubles will be more successful long term than the one who tries to hit a grand slam every time he’s at bat. It’s the modern business equivalent of “The Tortoise and the Hare.”
Romney is the tortoise. He is the contact hitter. He has mastered the 20-Mile March. While others around him rise and fall, he keeps plugging on. Sure, he’s had good days and bad. But the 20-Mile March is a guideline, a mantra, a way of life. Collins says, “The 20-Mile March imposes order amid disorder, consistency amid swirling inconsistency.” Some have said Romney is too robotic, too mechanical, but that kind of bionic-man approach has enabled him to succeed, slowly but surely.
Just look at the trends in polling. The trend lines for Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum have zigged and zagged all over the place. When those lines are shown together, it’s hard to decipher who is who and what it all means, until you remember that June was when Gingrich first imploded, August was the month that Bachmann won the Iowa straw poll and November was when the first allegations hit Cain and Perry had his “Oops” moment. The ups and downs of each candidacy have proven to be fantastic media fodder. But amid all that chaos, there is one line that has been steadily creeping upward — Romney’s. While Herman Cain was fending off sexual harassment allegations following a wild surge in the polls, Romney was holding town-hall meetings in New Hampshire outlining his jobs plan. While Newt Gingrich was explaining away his compensation from Freddie Mac, Romney was on a bus tour in Iowa stressing the importance of reducing the deficit. He was largely out of the limelight, so much so that reporters griped that they didn’t have enough access to him. But amid all that noise, Romney and his campaign were making progress where it mattered — on the ground, online and in his campaign coffers.
The one other candidate in the race who has taken the 20-Mile March approach is Ron Paul. Paul has been on a slow but steady upward trajectory. However, despite the enthusiasm of his supporters and the organization of his campaign, that trajectory may soon reach its peak.
An additional, more politically consequential reason for Romney’s success is, once again, the fact that Americans are turning out in droves to vote for “anybody but Barack.” Turnout in New Hampshire’s 2012 primary exceeded the GOP turnout of 2008 by several thousand votes. Statewide, Romney netted twice as many votes as Barack Obama, and in a six-way race, Romney alone outperformed Obama in every single county. In New Hampshire’s semi-open primary system, 51% of the electorate identified themselves as Independent or Democrat — 47% Independent and 4% Democrat. These constituents could have voted for Barack Obama in his uncontested primary contest, but instead they came out to cast a vote to determine which Republican will take him on in November.
Romney’s win in New Hampshire does not lock up the nomination, but it solidifies his spot as the GOP front-runner. It has been impressive thus far to watch Romney, as the other candidates have risen and fallen, hold steady. This discipline, combined with his strong organization on the ground and online, will allow Romney to go the distance, 20 miles at a time.
Jim Anderson is a partner at Collins Anderson Philp Public Affairs.