President Barack Obama may have missed an opportunity to influence Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan during his most recent visit to Washington, according to foreign policy experts who specialize in the region.
But those experts noted that there is little the administration could have done to prevent the current unrest in Turkey.
“The administration has recognized that there have been some reversals but recognizes that Turkey is a strategic ally. I think not calling out Prime Minister Erdogan was a mistake,” Council on Foreign Relations fellow for Middle Eastern studies Steven A. Cook said.
During the visit, Obama praised the United States’ relationship with Turkey, but since then, he has condemned Erdogan’s actions. Although this is the first time Obama has publicly criticized Erdogan, the issues that caused the riots have evolved since Erdogan was elected over a decade ago, Cook said.
“I think that over the course of the past three or four years this administration has missed some important opportunities to remind Prime Minister Erdogan of and highlight the importance of a truly democratic transition,” he said.
Every time Prime Minister Erdogan has met with Obama, the president has let these issues slide, as not to cause conflict, Cook said.
“I think that there’s not much the administration could have done to prevent the current situation, and I don’t think there’s much that they can do now besides continuing what they’re doing,” Cook said. “But I do think that there were important moments in the past where the president or the secretary of state could have spoken up to Erdogan.”
The Obama administration has never had previous troubles with Erdogan, and the administration very much valued their partnership with Turkey, analysts said.
“The Obama administration considers Turkey a strategic partner in the region, and a breakdown in ties between the two countries are unlikely at this point,” a foreign policy expert at the American Enterprise Institute, Ahmmad Majidyar, said in an email.
As long as the United States fails to present any opposition to Erdogan, the Turkish regime will likely proceed along its current trajectory.
“The US-Turkish relationship is unlikely to change as a result of the protests, mainly owing to the close relationship which the two countries and leaders have for one another,” executive director of the Institute of Turkish Studies at Georgetown University Sinan Ciddi said. “That being said, the White House should continue to reiterate its support for freedom of speech, associational freedoms and the right to protest peacefully.”
Yet, Erdogan’s power is not diminishing.
“I think that this is the most significant challenge to Erdogan’s decade in power, but I don’t think that what we are looking at is the Turkish log of the Egyptian uprising,” Cook said. “Governments change in turkey by the ballot box, and I don’t think he is going to come crashing down.”
Josh Peterson contributed reporting.