Massachusetts voters head to the polls Tuesday for a special election between Democrat Rep. Ed Markey and Republican businessman Gabriel Gomez. The winner gets to fill the remainder of Secretary of State John Kerry’s Senate term.
Republicans rarely win elections in Kennedy country, a place where Michael Dukakis was actually elected governor three times. But it has happened often enough to establish what it would take for Gomez to beat the odds — and beat Markey. Here are five things the Republicans must do.
1. Win more than 60 percent of independents. A bare majority of Bay State voters is now registered “unenrolled,” meaning they belong to no political party. Some of them are really Republicans in disguise, reserving the right to vote in the Democratic primaries that still decide most Massachusetts elections. So it’s not surprising that competitive GOP candidates tend to do well among independents.
But a successful Republican must win these voters by a huge margin, taking somewhere between three-fifths and two-thirds. There were no exit polls in the 2010 special Senate election won by Republican Scott Brown, but pre-election surveys showed him taking about 65 percent of independents. GOP governors Bill Weld, Paul Cellucci and Mitt Romney ran up similar numbers. The 2012 exits showed Brown winning 59 percent of independents, which wasn’t good enough to beat Democrat Elizabeth Warren.
2. Win at least 20 percent of Democrats. Democrats may no longer be as thick on the ground as independents, but they still vastly outnumber Republicans. Consequently, no Republican can win without a critical mass of Democratic support. The bigger the Democratic crossover vote, the more manageable the independent vote becomes as well.
Brown is believed to have won between 20 and 25 percent of Democrats in his successful Senate campaign. He received just 11 percent of the Democratic vote when he lost to Warren. Weld won about a third of Democratic voters in a close race for governor in 1990, the first of four straight Republican gubernatorial victories.
3. Capitalize on the low-turnout special election. Let’s face it: the Democrats have a massive voter mobilization advantage over the Republicans. Democrats were honing their get-out-the-vote machines across the state for decades, while Republicans were struggling to recruit candidates for office. The lower turnout of a special election doesn’t exactly even the score, but it gives Republicans a better shot. Turnout certainly helped Brown in his special election.
4. Run up the vote in the suburbs. In late 2009 and early 2010, “Martha Coakley for Senate” signs were as rare in suburban towns as New York Yankees banners. Signs of genuine enthusiasm for the Democratic nominee were common only in Boston proper. Suburban voters are generally more open to voting Republican than urban Bay Staters. Gomez needs them Tuesday if he is to have a shot.
5. Outperform the polls. Brown had the element of surprise in his special election, but he was ahead in the final polling. A Politico/Insider Advantage survey had Brown up 9 points. Gomez has no such luck. The Republican trail by at least 7 points, according to the most recent public polling data. To send Markey back to Malden, Gomez must first prove the pollsters wrong.
It’s not easy to be a Republican in Massachusetts.
Content created by The Daily Caller News Foundation is available without charge to any eligible news publisher that can provide a large audience. For licensing opportunities of our original content, please contact licensing@
All content created by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent and nonpartisan newswire service, is available without charge to any legitimate news publisher that can provide a large audience. All republished articles must include our logo, our reporter’s byline and their DCNF affiliation. For any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.